Post by JABF on Dec 25, 2020 8:53:43 GMT -6
This is a good read and pretty objective. It brings up some excellent points. This is a long article and only a few snippets are quoted here. It's worth following the link to read the entire article.
When a team is in free-fall during a losing streak it is a crushing disappointment for us fans... especially to me... I do get down because I care about the Bears and I want them to be successful. I'm invested emotionally. But this article by Hoge is a good opportunity to pause and look at the big picture in a non-emotional and objective way.
I'll admit that I am re-thinking all of this. Anyway, Hoge brings up some good points to consider even if you think Nagy should be fired.
LINK
As Bears' Matt Nagy evolves as head coach, firing him would be a mistake
Adam Hoge (originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago)
... But despite all the losing, there was very little evidence that anyone was turning on the head coach. After the embarrassing loss in Green Bay, when Nagy called out the defense that had carried his offense for most of the season, the defensive leaders defended him. And after the collapse against the Lions, everyone showed up to work, stayed diligent with social distancing and started preparing for Deshaun Watson and the Texans.
Later that week, the Bears pounded the Texans 36-7. Mitchell Trubisky even outplayed Watson. And it wasn’t close.
... Somewhat lost in the depths of defeat against the Packers and Lions were the subtle signs of an offensive turnaround. The Bears averaged 5.4 yards per play against the Packers and 5.8 against the Lions. It wasn’t anything too impressive, but it sure beat the 3.0 yards per play the Bears managed in Nick Foles’ last start before the bye week. Trubisky was moving the ball and playing well, even if he couldn’t avoid the costly turnovers. More importantly, the running game was suddenly working. By the time the Bears beat the Vikings Sunday, Nagy had a comparable version of Gary Kubiak’s offense in Minnesota, which protects Kirk Cousins from his own weaknesses and accentuates his strengths while running through Dalvin Cook.
And now Bears fans are spending their Christmas wondering, what does this all mean? Are the Bears good now? Is Nagy safe?
When evaluating a head coach, it’s important to look at the full picture. With that in mind, here’s how I would evaluate Nagy on six key categories, ranked in order of importance in his specific situation:
Leadership
The biggest reason Nagy – still only 42 – climbed through the coaching ranks so fast is his positive influence on people – players, coaches, staffers, fans, etc. It’s hard to find anyone who has a bad thing to say about Matt Nagy and that’s why his players love him.
In 2018, Nagy won over the locker room quickly. Even in offseason workouts, it was evident that the players were buying in. By the time the regular season began, it was clear that the Bears were going to be a competent football team and win games. The fact they won 12 games and the NFC North was a bonus.
Obviously the last two seasons have not gone as smooth, but in the midst of a four-game losing streak in 2019 and a six-game losing streak this year, Nagy managed to hold the locker room together. As exhausting as it can be to hear about “culture” on a losing team, it does matter.
Offensive influence
Let’s not bury this one too far down the list. Nagy was brought here to run a high-scoring offense and develop Trubisky. This has turned into an extremely layered storyline with a very blunt conclusion: the results have been poor. Trubisky was benched in Week 3 of this season and the offense only got worse without him -- ranking near the bottom of the league in almost every relevant category.
But this is where things get tricky. Nagy has relinquished play-calling, significantly changed his offense on the fly, re-inserted Trubisky over the quarterback he brought in (Nick Foles) and the offense is suddenly showing major improvements.
Game management/preparedness
The end of the Lions game was a disaster and there have been some questionable decisions (like not calling timeout to get a crack at a punt return before halftime against the Rams) but overall, I have had very few problems with Nagy’s in-game management. Sometimes we forget how big of an issue this is across the league. Literally every coach makes questionable clock-management decisions, but I have never viewed this as a major weakness for Nagy.
He also rarely challenges a play he shouldn’t (remember how big of an issue this was under John Fox?). The bigger issue for Nagy in this category is the offensive preparedness. The volume and details of his playbook are intense and sometimes lead to mistakes and penalties. If there’s one thing we’ve learned over the last month, it’s that simplification can be a good thing. The amount of times the Bears have had to call timeouts this season because of substitution errors or being lined up incorrectly has been alarming. And the lack of success they’ve had coming out of those timeouts is even worse. Fortunately, that trend seems to be have stopped in recent weeks.
Staff hiring
Nagy did well to keep Vic Fangio in 2018 and while fans like to rag on special teams, Chris Tabor is a smart special teams coordinator with good schemes to maximize the return game and limit big plays against the Bears. But Nagy’s first offensive coordinator hire – Mark Helfrich – was curious because they didn’t have any history together and it ended up not working out. Nagy also moved on from offensive line coach Harry Heistand after two seasons. Both Helfrich and Heistand are not coaching this year.
The rush to replace Fangio with Chuck Pagano was interesting, especially because promoting one of the assistants could have kept continuity on that side of the ball. As it turned out, outside linebackers coach Brandon Staley would have been a great hire, as he’s leading the Rams’ No. 1 ranked defense this year. Pagano still leads a good unit, but the sharp decline in takeaways and sacks since Fangio left is alarming, especially because most of the core personnel is the same.
That said, Nagy/Pagano retained Jay Rodgers, who might be the best defensive line coach in the league. And from his original offensive hires, wide receivers coach Mike Furrey occasionally has his name mentioned as a future head coaching candidate. The hiring of offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo and offensive line coach Juan Castillo certainly weren’t celebrated until recent weeks, but suddenly seem to be paying off.
This is honestly a mixed bag and three years probably isn’t enough time to evaluate the development of a staff. There aren’t necessarily any bad hires to point to, but there also aren’t any obvious success stories that have led to an assistant developing and getting a bigger job elsewhere (unless you want to give Nagy credit for the 2018 season getting Fangio his first head coaching opportunity).
Personnel
I put this last in the evaluation because Nagy does not have control over the 53-man roster. Ultimately, that is still Ryan Pace’s responsibility. But it still matters because Nagy does have input and they do work together on many decisions.
The Nick Foles trade is the most obvious example. And simply put – it hasn’t worked out.
On the other hand, drafting running back David Montgomery counts as a positive example. Pace and Nagy determined they needed to upgrade from Jordan Howard and they managed to move him for draft compensation before selecting Montgomery, who Nagy really liked. Rookie wide receiver Darnell Mooney has also proven to be a good example. Nagy – and especially Furrey – were big influences on that draft selection.
Overall, improvement is needed in this area. It ties into the offensive problems because the personnel hasn’t always matched the scheme. If Nagy returns in 2021, he needs to first decide what he wants to run (and with what quarterback) and make sure his players – especially the offensive linemen – fit that plan.
The conclusion
Let’s go back to the key question previously mentioned: Is the recent offensive evolution away from Nagy’s preferred scheme proof the Bears hired the wrong coach or is it evidence that he can adapt and scheme to his players?
Unfortunately, the answer to this question can only be decided with future results and it needs to be determined if Nagy is willing to commit to the current form of this offense, especially if Trubisky returns with him. Even in a scenario where Foles starts games in 2021, how can Nagy tailor the offense to get better results? And who’s calling the plays?
This is where it’s important to remember that Nagy is still only 42 years old and in his third year as a head coach. Even his play-calling experience was limited before he arrived in Chicago. The offensive turnaround has been remarkable and even if you want to give praise to Lazor because he’s calling the plays, Nagy still gets credit as a head coach for essentially firing himself. After that move was made, I detailed how giving up play-calling could make him a better head coach, and the results suggest that is happening.
But most importantly, the players are still playing for Nagy. Jimmy Graham has played for Sean Payton and Pete Carroll and he had some very poignant and thoughtful praise for Nagy on Thursday:
“How they handled that internally and still believe in and still lean in on the players, is special. We’ve been through a lot this season. A lot of learning, a lot of growth at every position, at every turn. It’s a testament to the coaching staff and the players on this team to be able to put that behind you and now get back-to-back wins and go into Jacksonville with complete focus, trying to play for one another, and just trying to keep this dream alive.”
The best head coaches learn to adapt in an always evolving league. The ones that don’t – and stubbornly cling to the schemes and systems that previously earned them success and money – end up getting fired. Nagy might have been on that latter path earlier this season, but the more recent results suggest a significant change.
“With him leading the charge, man, I wouldn't want to play for nobody else in this situation,” Gipson said.
It would be a shame to fire a young head coach only to later realize he was just starting to figure it out before enjoying success elsewhere.
And that’s why the smartest move is for the Bears to bring Nagy back in 2021.
As Bears' Matt Nagy evolves as head coach, firing him would be a mistake
Adam Hoge (originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago)
... But despite all the losing, there was very little evidence that anyone was turning on the head coach. After the embarrassing loss in Green Bay, when Nagy called out the defense that had carried his offense for most of the season, the defensive leaders defended him. And after the collapse against the Lions, everyone showed up to work, stayed diligent with social distancing and started preparing for Deshaun Watson and the Texans.
Later that week, the Bears pounded the Texans 36-7. Mitchell Trubisky even outplayed Watson. And it wasn’t close.
... Somewhat lost in the depths of defeat against the Packers and Lions were the subtle signs of an offensive turnaround. The Bears averaged 5.4 yards per play against the Packers and 5.8 against the Lions. It wasn’t anything too impressive, but it sure beat the 3.0 yards per play the Bears managed in Nick Foles’ last start before the bye week. Trubisky was moving the ball and playing well, even if he couldn’t avoid the costly turnovers. More importantly, the running game was suddenly working. By the time the Bears beat the Vikings Sunday, Nagy had a comparable version of Gary Kubiak’s offense in Minnesota, which protects Kirk Cousins from his own weaknesses and accentuates his strengths while running through Dalvin Cook.
And now Bears fans are spending their Christmas wondering, what does this all mean? Are the Bears good now? Is Nagy safe?
When evaluating a head coach, it’s important to look at the full picture. With that in mind, here’s how I would evaluate Nagy on six key categories, ranked in order of importance in his specific situation:
Leadership
The biggest reason Nagy – still only 42 – climbed through the coaching ranks so fast is his positive influence on people – players, coaches, staffers, fans, etc. It’s hard to find anyone who has a bad thing to say about Matt Nagy and that’s why his players love him.
In 2018, Nagy won over the locker room quickly. Even in offseason workouts, it was evident that the players were buying in. By the time the regular season began, it was clear that the Bears were going to be a competent football team and win games. The fact they won 12 games and the NFC North was a bonus.
Obviously the last two seasons have not gone as smooth, but in the midst of a four-game losing streak in 2019 and a six-game losing streak this year, Nagy managed to hold the locker room together. As exhausting as it can be to hear about “culture” on a losing team, it does matter.
Offensive influence
Let’s not bury this one too far down the list. Nagy was brought here to run a high-scoring offense and develop Trubisky. This has turned into an extremely layered storyline with a very blunt conclusion: the results have been poor. Trubisky was benched in Week 3 of this season and the offense only got worse without him -- ranking near the bottom of the league in almost every relevant category.
But this is where things get tricky. Nagy has relinquished play-calling, significantly changed his offense on the fly, re-inserted Trubisky over the quarterback he brought in (Nick Foles) and the offense is suddenly showing major improvements.
Game management/preparedness
The end of the Lions game was a disaster and there have been some questionable decisions (like not calling timeout to get a crack at a punt return before halftime against the Rams) but overall, I have had very few problems with Nagy’s in-game management. Sometimes we forget how big of an issue this is across the league. Literally every coach makes questionable clock-management decisions, but I have never viewed this as a major weakness for Nagy.
He also rarely challenges a play he shouldn’t (remember how big of an issue this was under John Fox?). The bigger issue for Nagy in this category is the offensive preparedness. The volume and details of his playbook are intense and sometimes lead to mistakes and penalties. If there’s one thing we’ve learned over the last month, it’s that simplification can be a good thing. The amount of times the Bears have had to call timeouts this season because of substitution errors or being lined up incorrectly has been alarming. And the lack of success they’ve had coming out of those timeouts is even worse. Fortunately, that trend seems to be have stopped in recent weeks.
Staff hiring
Nagy did well to keep Vic Fangio in 2018 and while fans like to rag on special teams, Chris Tabor is a smart special teams coordinator with good schemes to maximize the return game and limit big plays against the Bears. But Nagy’s first offensive coordinator hire – Mark Helfrich – was curious because they didn’t have any history together and it ended up not working out. Nagy also moved on from offensive line coach Harry Heistand after two seasons. Both Helfrich and Heistand are not coaching this year.
The rush to replace Fangio with Chuck Pagano was interesting, especially because promoting one of the assistants could have kept continuity on that side of the ball. As it turned out, outside linebackers coach Brandon Staley would have been a great hire, as he’s leading the Rams’ No. 1 ranked defense this year. Pagano still leads a good unit, but the sharp decline in takeaways and sacks since Fangio left is alarming, especially because most of the core personnel is the same.
That said, Nagy/Pagano retained Jay Rodgers, who might be the best defensive line coach in the league. And from his original offensive hires, wide receivers coach Mike Furrey occasionally has his name mentioned as a future head coaching candidate. The hiring of offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo and offensive line coach Juan Castillo certainly weren’t celebrated until recent weeks, but suddenly seem to be paying off.
This is honestly a mixed bag and three years probably isn’t enough time to evaluate the development of a staff. There aren’t necessarily any bad hires to point to, but there also aren’t any obvious success stories that have led to an assistant developing and getting a bigger job elsewhere (unless you want to give Nagy credit for the 2018 season getting Fangio his first head coaching opportunity).
Personnel
I put this last in the evaluation because Nagy does not have control over the 53-man roster. Ultimately, that is still Ryan Pace’s responsibility. But it still matters because Nagy does have input and they do work together on many decisions.
The Nick Foles trade is the most obvious example. And simply put – it hasn’t worked out.
On the other hand, drafting running back David Montgomery counts as a positive example. Pace and Nagy determined they needed to upgrade from Jordan Howard and they managed to move him for draft compensation before selecting Montgomery, who Nagy really liked. Rookie wide receiver Darnell Mooney has also proven to be a good example. Nagy – and especially Furrey – were big influences on that draft selection.
Overall, improvement is needed in this area. It ties into the offensive problems because the personnel hasn’t always matched the scheme. If Nagy returns in 2021, he needs to first decide what he wants to run (and with what quarterback) and make sure his players – especially the offensive linemen – fit that plan.
The conclusion
Let’s go back to the key question previously mentioned: Is the recent offensive evolution away from Nagy’s preferred scheme proof the Bears hired the wrong coach or is it evidence that he can adapt and scheme to his players?
Unfortunately, the answer to this question can only be decided with future results and it needs to be determined if Nagy is willing to commit to the current form of this offense, especially if Trubisky returns with him. Even in a scenario where Foles starts games in 2021, how can Nagy tailor the offense to get better results? And who’s calling the plays?
This is where it’s important to remember that Nagy is still only 42 years old and in his third year as a head coach. Even his play-calling experience was limited before he arrived in Chicago. The offensive turnaround has been remarkable and even if you want to give praise to Lazor because he’s calling the plays, Nagy still gets credit as a head coach for essentially firing himself. After that move was made, I detailed how giving up play-calling could make him a better head coach, and the results suggest that is happening.
But most importantly, the players are still playing for Nagy. Jimmy Graham has played for Sean Payton and Pete Carroll and he had some very poignant and thoughtful praise for Nagy on Thursday:
“How they handled that internally and still believe in and still lean in on the players, is special. We’ve been through a lot this season. A lot of learning, a lot of growth at every position, at every turn. It’s a testament to the coaching staff and the players on this team to be able to put that behind you and now get back-to-back wins and go into Jacksonville with complete focus, trying to play for one another, and just trying to keep this dream alive.”
The best head coaches learn to adapt in an always evolving league. The ones that don’t – and stubbornly cling to the schemes and systems that previously earned them success and money – end up getting fired. Nagy might have been on that latter path earlier this season, but the more recent results suggest a significant change.
“With him leading the charge, man, I wouldn't want to play for nobody else in this situation,” Gipson said.
It would be a shame to fire a young head coach only to later realize he was just starting to figure it out before enjoying success elsewhere.
And that’s why the smartest move is for the Bears to bring Nagy back in 2021.
