Post by lklrlolnlilklsox on Oct 25, 2020 12:50:34 GMT -6
So you’re telling me stuff like “just keep trying” isn’t anything more than a worthless platitude based on extreme exceptions to the much proven rule?
Seriously, if one of these guys steps up hard and shows his game transcends his resume, great, go ahead and reach on your choice of who remains 1/2. As of now, I don’t have a big board, but if I did there would probably be 100 guys between Lawrence and someone like Wilson. Reaching for need is a failed philosophy.
I figure that drafting a franchise QB is kind of like fishing. There is a combination of skill and luck involved. Both. But if you don't go fishing then you are not gonna catch anything. It's time for Pace to try his luck again with a QB. We haven't had a great QB here since we drafted Sid in the 1939 draft (that was 81 drafts ago....81 years ago). He was a first round home run for us. I keep thinking the law of averages surely will eventually fall in our favor here and we'll get lucky if nothing else... I'll take "lucky" here. It's like catching that trophy fish. Keep trying. Keep fishing.
I get the idea JABF, but smart fisherman know when to go fishing based on what they are trying to catch. You don't go trying to catch King/Coho salmon in the Great lakes in early spring/summer. And you don't use the same bait or lines as you do for perch. Now add in time of day, type of weather depth of water and doing it well is really complex. And compared to some other fish, they are easy, drafting a qb is probably more akin to catching a Muskie b/c even when everything is right you aren't likely to get one.
There is a time and place for you to draft a qb, is the talent even there, if it is, does that talent match what you want him to do(most are scheme specific), do you have the draft capital to get the 1 or 2 that even match your scheme and have the talent.
Again you have an equal chance of no qb's hitting than you do of more then 1. 2 in 5; sub 50% in there being more then 1 qb hitting in any given class, equal shot of none hitting as 2 or 3 hitting. And that's just in rounds 1-3; add the rest and it drops even more drastically. You are asking to give up a lot of equity for shits and giggles.
You know I'm all for drafting a qb often, but the #'s don't lie about this. in 10 years 1 qb from the 4th has hit(Dak), none after that. NO reason to draft a qb in the 4th or later, the odds are terrible beyond terrible. If all you want is a camp arm/PS guy get one from UDFA. You draft in rounds 1-3 unless something stupid happens. And in rounds 1-3 you only draft if the qb meets all requirements of talent and scheme fit. If that means every year or multiple in 1 year do it, if it means waiting then you wait.
I figure that drafting a franchise QB is kind of like fishing. There is a combination of skill and luck involved. Both. But if you don't go fishing then you are not gonna catch anything. It's time for Pace to try his luck again with a QB. We haven't had a great QB here since we drafted Sid in the 1939 draft (that was 81 drafts ago....81 years ago). He was a first round home run for us. I keep thinking the law of averages surely will eventually fall in our favor here and we'll get lucky if nothing else... I'll take "lucky" here. It's like catching that trophy fish. Keep trying. Keep fishing.
I get the idea JABF, but smart fisherman know when to go fishing based on what they are trying to catch. You don't go trying to catch King/Coho salmon in the Great lakes in early spring/summer. And you don't use the same bait or lines as you do for perch. Now add in time of day, type of weather depth of water and doing it well is really complex. And compared to some other fish, they are easy, drafting a qb is probably more akin to catching a Muskie b/c even when everything is right you aren't likely to get one.
There is a time and place for you to draft a qb, is the talent even there, if it is, does that talent match what you want him to do(most are scheme specific), do you have the draft capital to get the 1 or 2 that even match your scheme and have the talent.
Again you have an equal chance of no qb's hitting than you do of more then 1. 2 in 5; sub 50% in there being more then 1 qb hitting in any given class, equal shot of none hitting as 2 or 3 hitting. And that's just in rounds 1-3; add the rest and it drops even more drastically. You are asking to give up a lot of equity for shits and giggles.
You know I'm all for drafting a qb often, but the #'s don't lie about this. in 10 years 1 qb from the 4th has hit(Dak), none after that. NO reason to draft a qb in the 4th or later, the odds are terrible beyond terrible. If all you want is a camp arm/PS guy get one from UDFA. You draft in rounds 1-3 unless something stupid happens. And in rounds 1-3 you only draft if the qb meets all requirements of talent and scheme fit. If that means every year or multiple in 1 year do it, if it means waiting then you wait.
I agree with all of that. There are a lot of moving parts so it's not a simple task. Obviously if it were that simple then all 32 teams would have good QBs. And even if you do pick a good QB the team still needs the supporting infrastructure for that guy to perform up to his ceiling. I suspect that more QBs would have been good ones at the NFL level but they went to teams that basically ruined them. I can't prove that. But my gut feeling is that it happens.
So in the draft:
1. The QB player talent potential needs to be there. The QB has to have the potential to shine in the NFL.
2. Then of course the drafting team needs that guy to fall to where they are drafting.
3. The GM needs to recognize the guy is a legit talent. Guys like Rodgers, Brady, Russell Wilson, Mahomes, etc were passed over by teams.
4. The QB needs to be a fit for the team's scheme.
5. The team needs the supporting talent for the QB to achieve his ceiling potential.
6. Then the team can't totally suck as far as the scheme, coaching, play calling, etc. If the guy lands on a really bad team situation it doesn't matter. The guy is probably screwed.
So when we look back at some of these "failed" QBs I think there is a lot going on in addition to the player who was drafted. Some land in no-win situations. They are "dead men walking" as soon as that team calls their name on draft day. JMO.
I get the idea JABF, but smart fisherman know when to go fishing based on what they are trying to catch. You don't go trying to catch King/Coho salmon in the Great lakes in early spring/summer. And you don't use the same bait or lines as you do for perch. Now add in time of day, type of weather depth of water and doing it well is really complex. And compared to some other fish, they are easy, drafting a qb is probably more akin to catching a Muskie b/c even when everything is right you aren't likely to get one.
There is a time and place for you to draft a qb, is the talent even there, if it is, does that talent match what you want him to do(most are scheme specific), do you have the draft capital to get the 1 or 2 that even match your scheme and have the talent.
Again you have an equal chance of no qb's hitting than you do of more then 1. 2 in 5; sub 50% in there being more then 1 qb hitting in any given class, equal shot of none hitting as 2 or 3 hitting. And that's just in rounds 1-3; add the rest and it drops even more drastically. You are asking to give up a lot of equity for shits and giggles.
You know I'm all for drafting a qb often, but the #'s don't lie about this. in 10 years 1 qb from the 4th has hit(Dak), none after that. NO reason to draft a qb in the 4th or later, the odds are terrible beyond terrible. If all you want is a camp arm/PS guy get one from UDFA. You draft in rounds 1-3 unless something stupid happens. And in rounds 1-3 you only draft if the qb meets all requirements of talent and scheme fit. If that means every year or multiple in 1 year do it, if it means waiting then you wait.
I agree with all of that. There are a lot of moving parts so it's not a simple task. Obviously if it were that simple then all 32 teams would have good QBs. And even if you do pick a good QB the team still needs the supporting infrastructure for that guy to perform up to his ceiling. I suspect that more QBs would have been good ones at the NFL level but they went to teams that basically ruined them. I can't prove that. But my gut feeling is that it happens.
So in the draft:
1. The QB player talent potential needs to be there. The QB has to have the potential to shine in the NFL.
2. Then of course the drafting team needs that guy to fall to where they are drafting.
3. The GM needs to recognize the guy is a legit talent. Guys like Rodgers, Brady, Russell Wilson, Mahomes, etc were passed over by teams.
4. The QB needs to be a fit for the team's scheme.
5. The team needs the supporting talent for the QB to achieve his ceiling potential.
6. Then the team can't totally suck as far as the scheme, coaching, play calling, etc. If the guy lands on a really bad team situation it doesn't matter. The guy is probably screwed.
So when we look back at some of these "failed" QBs I think there is a lot going on in addition to the player who was drafted. Some land in no-win situations. They are "dead men walking" as soon as that team calls their name on draft day. JMO.
to all of this yes.
Brady doesn't become Brady w/out NE and BB, and I don't think Mahomes is Mahomes if he comes to Chicago. All his flaws in the write ups likely come out b/c of how soon he has to start, and the complete lack of talent around him in his first few years. Is Rogers Rogers w/out sitting and getting used to the GB system w/0 pressure b/c of Farve? I think that is a legit question.
The only time this isn't the case is when the team is going in eye's wide open w/who the QB is and is willing to mold the entire team around that qb and his abilities, see Balt and Lamar Jackson. but most coaches aren't willing to do that, and I'm not expecting them to.
It's a huge problem, the worst teams need a qb most, but they are least able to do support that qb from day 1. It's why you see guys like Wilson, Mahomes and Rogers succeed when the vast majority fail. They went to teams that didn't need them, they already had pieces in place to succeed and those draft picks were just cherries on top.
Here's the deal. Yes, QBs get over-drafted in the NFL. That's reality whether we like it or not. That's the gig at the NFL level. And we've seen what happens to a franchise when you don't have a franchise QB. No Super Bowl wins here. For decades and decades. You either have a franchise QB. Or not. We don't have one. So get one... or at least TRY to get one.
I get so sick of hearing the whining about "how hard it is to draft a franchise QB" well, yes. Life is hard sometimes. You can either roll over and give up. Or you can keep trying. I'm in that camp of keeping on trying until you finally achieve something good. Look, eventually (if we keep trying) the blind squirrel is gonna find that acorn here in Chicago and the Bears will get their franchise QB. It is gonna be so sweet when we do.
Just. Keep. Trying.
Don't quit just because "it's hard" to draft a good QB in the NFL.
And here's another thing that burns my butt. People seem to worry about missing with our 1st round pick on a QB. Well hey, we aren't exactly lighting things up under Pace with our 1st rounders anyway. If you're gonna throw away a 1st round pick then at least give a QB a whirl and draft one of 'em in hopes you DO eventually land a good one. Pace has sure done dumber things with his 1st round picks over the years. So has Emery. So has Jerry Angelo. So grow a pair and keep trying to get a solid QB here. Keep trying. Keep pulling that draft trigger until you get your guy.
Don't just roll over and whine about "how hard" it all is. Oh, the humanity of it all... we have to try and draft a QB in the 1st round again. LOL, a Super Bowl championship is not coming to Chicago until we get this figured out. I don't know about you guys, but I'm getting tired of the wait for a Lombardi here. This isn't rocket science. If you don't even try to draft a solid QB, we probably won't get one by magic. LOL.
[sarcasm]But this is the worst QB class ever, 2nd round franchise QBs are easy to find, you can draft HOF QBs in the 6th round, never draft a QB in the first when there are plenty of capable UDFA QBs every year, Warner was bagging groceries for crying out loud, only draft pass rushers period, QBs are over rated--just find a game manager, DEF>OFF, draft DEF early and OFF late...what else have I read around here.....[/sarcasm]
Around here, where? Brasil, honest to God, sometimes I feel like we are on different boards, you and I...
We all are just frustrated that the QB situation still needs to be addressed. Foles is a temp. All of us are just tired of the same old problem here in Chicago. And then rubbing salt into the wound was the Mitchell Trubisky debacle. I'm accepting the fact that we whiffed on Mitch and trying to let it go. But I do hope we keep trying to get the QB monkey off our back here. I don't want to waste draft picks. Nobody wants that. But I also don't want to cycle through deadbeat veterans either. I want to see the Bears draft until they get their guy - and then keep him here for many many years to come. It's tough to get one, but not impossible. So just keep trying. That's all I ask. Just keep trying. Eventually we will get our guy.
[sarcasm]But this is the worst QB class ever, 2nd round franchise QBs are easy to find, you can draft HOF QBs in the 6th round, never draft a QB in the first when there are plenty of capable UDFA QBs every year, Warner was bagging groceries for crying out loud, only draft pass rushers period, QBs are over rated--just find a game manager, DEF>OFF, draft DEF early and OFF late...what else have I read around here.....[/sarcasm]
Around here, where? Brasil, honest to God, sometimes I feel like we are on different boards, you and I...
Around here, where? Brasil, honest to God, sometimes I feel like we are on different boards, you and I...
Someone missed the [sarcasm] [\sarcasm] tags.
trust me on this one brasil, sarcasm is extremely difficult on the net. Took me over a decade to figure out. You have to be WAY over the top and all but ruin the idea of sarcasm in print.
trust me on this one brasil, sarcasm is extremely difficult on the net. Took me over a decade to figure out. You have to be WAY over the top and all but ruin the idea of sarcasm in print.
Especially when you frame it as parody and walk back on it later.
Once you DO get a great QB it can be amazing how long these guys can perform in some cases. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers combined for 8 passing TDs this week (not including rushing TDs). Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Big Ben and a few others... these guys can have long high-quality careers spanning a number of years. You realize why they are valued so highly. This is why GMs often overdraft the position. It can make-or-break the franchise for years. No other position has quite that level of impact upon a franchise.