As I’ve stated before, it’s Foles’ job to lose and I believe that after spending a season on the bench learning (using that one additional year he didn’t get in college) Mitch can come back in 2021 and re-claim the starting job. I still believe in him. If I didn’t, I wouldn’t have purchased his jersey last summer. 😉
Huh?
How exactly would that work?
Mitch is a FA after the 2020 season and if he spends most/all of this coming year riding the bench (something I don't doubt is possible), there's pretty much zero chance of the Bears re-signing or tagging him. Why would they do that?
If Mitch ends up "reclaiming a starting job" after 2020 somehow, it won't be with the Bears.
Looking first at how quarterbacks fared on just “first read” plays, it isn’t simply a list of flawed quarterbacks who can’t thrive in more complete passing offenses — elite quarterbacks are also elite throwing to their first reads. Over the past two seasons of play, Drew Brees (comfortably) and Patrick Mahomes lead the pack in terms of PFF grade on those first-read plays.
Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady and Kirk Cousins also feature highly in this list. Thirteen different quarterbacks have a passer rating north of 100 when targeting their first read, and the average depth of target (ADOT) on these plays is significantly further downfield than all throws combined, thanks in large part to a lack of checkdown passes pulling that number down.
...
While Jared Goff has a PFF grade above 90.0 on his first-read throws and ranks inside the top 10 when it comes to the last two seasons’ worth of attempts, he has the single biggest drop-off in grade when forced to progress beyond that first read — his grade plunges over 40 points to just 47.1 when he has to get to his second look. Goff ranks among the best 10 quarterbacks on first-read throws and ranks among the bottom 10 once he has to move beyond that.
Ryan Tannehill has the next most significant drop in PFF grade from first reads to any throw beyond that, with his grade plummeting from 79.6 to 41.9, another sure sign that some kind of regression is inevitable for him in 2020.
It won’t be a surprise to anybody to learn that Mitchell Trubisky owns the lowest PFF passing grade in football over the past two seasons when it comes to throws beyond his first read, at just 38.5. He is the only player who has graded below 40.0, and there is no variety of throw after his first read that he has been consistently good at. Whether it was the next receiver in his progression, checkdowns or all other late-in-the-play passing options, Trubisky has struggled and struggled badly.
Trubisky also progresses beyond his first read at the second-lowest rate in the league. Since 2018, only Ryan Fitzpatrick has made it beyond his first read at a lower rate. Trubisky has become the definition of the one-read-then-run quarterback.
While Jared Goff has a PFF grade above 90.0 on his first-read throws and ranks inside the top 10 when it comes to the last two seasons’ worth of attempts, he has the single biggest drop-off in grade when forced to progress beyond that first read — his grade plunges over 40 points to just 47.1 when he has to get to his second look. Goff ranks among the best 10 quarterbacks on first-read throws and ranks among the bottom 10 once he has to move beyond that.
Ryan Tannehill has the next most significant drop in PFF grade from first reads to any throw beyond that, with his grade plummeting from 79.6 to 41.9, another sure sign that some kind of regression is inevitable for him in 2020.
It won’t be a surprise to anybody to learn that Mitchell Trubisky owns the lowest PFF passing grade in football over the past two seasons when it comes to throws beyond his first read, at just 38.5. He is the only player who has graded below 40.0, and there is no variety of throw after his first read that he has been consistently good at. Whether it was the next receiver in his progression, checkdowns or all other late-in-the-play passing options, Trubisky has struggled and struggled badly.
Trubisky also progresses beyond his first read at the second-lowest rate in the league. Since 2018, only Ryan Fitzpatrick has made it beyond his first read at a lower rate. Trubisky has become the definition of the one-read-then-run quarterback.
It's been bitterly disappointing to watch him struggle processing information after the snap. Sometimes he just looks overwhelmed in games. He has the physical attributes but the mental part of the game is just not there as far as processing it all after the snap. He also misses badly on throws that are downfield in the vertical game. We've all seen him just miss WRs badly. I don't want to beat the dead horse, but I keep wondering just what was Ryan Pace thinking when he traded up to draft Trubisky. I went back and watched his play that single season where he started in college. He had some good plays, but watching many of those plays (in videos) it was after getting a ton of time to execute (that he's never going to have in the NFL) and passing to guys who were open by like 10 yards and all he had to do was chuck the ball long and let the guy catch it. I'm not criticizing him at all, but just wondering how Pace thought those 13 games reflected an NFL quarterback worthy of spending so much draft equity on.
I keep hoping Mitch can surprise us and have a solid season here this year. But at this point I think it's a long shot. Like trying to fill an inside straight in poker. Odds are not so hot it happens.
It's been bitterly disappointing to watch him struggle processing information after the snap. Sometimes he just looks overwhelmed in games. He has the physical attributes but the mental part of the game is just not there as far as processing it all after the snap. He also misses badly on throws that are downfield in the vertical game. We've all seen him just miss WRs badly. I don't want to beat the dead horse, but I keep wondering just what was Ryan Pace thinking when he traded up to draft Trubisky. I went back and watched his play that single season where he started in college. He had some good plays, but watching many of those plays (in videos) it was after getting a ton of time to execute (that he's never going to have in the NFL) and passing to guys who were open by like 10 yards and all he had to do was chuck the ball long and let the guy catch it. I'm not criticizing him at all, but just wondering how Pace thought those 13 games reflected an NFL quarterback worthy of spending so much draft equity on.
I keep hoping Mitch can surprise us and have a solid season here this year. But at this point I think it's a long shot. Like trying to fill an inside straight in poker. Odds are not so hot it happens.
Jay Cutler was another "million dollar arm, 10 cent head" type of QB. How many offseasons did we hope and write about him learning to improve his footwork, avoid throwing off balance, and develop a better "clock in his head"?
It never happened. At least not in a sustained fashion. After wasting years and years, the team finally gave up on him after throwing a stupid pick-6 to Chris Conte on an awful pass decision.
Like you said its kinda like drawing an inside straight at this point for Trubisky. I've read that statistically its very rare for a QB to succeed in the NFL after year 3.
Mitch is a FA after the 2020 season and if he spends most/all of this coming year riding the bench (something I don't doubt is possible), there's pretty much zero chance of the Bears re-signing or tagging him. Why would they do that?
If Mitch ends up "reclaiming a starting job" after 2020 somehow, it won't be with the Bears.
I'm confident our coaching staff is capable of evaluating Mitch even when he's sitting on the bench and if they believe he can take over again next year, we can always offer him a reasonable one-year prove-it deal which would buy us some time before being forced to spend big bucks on a QB contract in 2022, whoever it may be.
My feeling is that Mitch will either show that he is the guy, or show that he isn't - and the Bears just walk away from the Trubisky era and go back to the draft in 2021. This is "it" for him and the Bears. If the Bears can't figure out what they ultimately have in Mitch after 4 years then they are incompetent. Mitch may not be at that ceiling but they surely will know what his ceiling is at that point.
And even if Trubisky would end up hanging on in the NFL beyond this year I will always feel like Ryan Pace made a poor decision drafting him. I don't hold that against Pace because every young GM is going to have some misses in the draft, as painful as these misses can be. Clearly he felt like Trubisky was the guy and went all-in to get him... and I understand that even though in hindsight he could have drafted better and not tossed away additional draft picks like he did. But it's over with and we can't undo the past.
He could surprise us and beat out Foles and look like a #2 overall pick of the draft this season. And I hope he does. But it is a long shot. But I am just a fan and could easily be wrong here. But this is his shot to show he's the guy or not. No more twisting on the thread like we did with Cutler. I can absolutely understand not being able to evaluate Trubisky in the draft due to only a handful of starting appearances at the college level (1 season). But after this season, he will have 4 NFL seasons to evaluate - and we should know what we have in the guy.
That's not a pro-Mitch or anti-Mitch thing. At some point you move on. Oh, and one more thing. If he just kindof sortof shows some halfway decent play (in other words a tease here) you still move on. He's either "The Guy" or he isn't. Give him his 4th year chance here and see what he's got. Then make a decision. Foles can keep the seat warm while the Bears go back to the draft in 2021 (if we have to).
Mitch is a FA after the 2020 season and if he spends most/all of this coming year riding the bench (something I don't doubt is possible), there's pretty much zero chance of the Bears re-signing or tagging him. Why would they do that?
If Mitch ends up "reclaiming a starting job" after 2020 somehow, it won't be with the Bears.
I'm confident our coaching staff is capable of evaluating Mitch even when he's sitting on the bench and if they believe he can take over again next year, we can always offer him a reasonable one-year prove-it deal which would buy us some time before being forced to spend big bucks on a QB contract in 2022, whoever it may be.
I can't see that happening. Maybe I'm wrong.
I think they would just draft a QB in 2021 and reload.