Post by JABF on May 28, 2020 15:22:43 GMT -6
to bring home what butkus3595 was saying:
2015
1 TB Jameis Winston QB, released signed as backup in New Orleans
2 Ten Marcus Mariota QB, released signed as backup in Las Vegas
3 Jax Dante Fowler DE, traded to LA, released signed w/Atl
4 Oak Amari Cooper WR, Cooper traded to Dallas
5 Wash Brandon Scherff OT, drafted as OT, moved to OG resigned w/Wash
7 Chi Kevin White WR, released signed w/AZ, released
8 Atl Vic Beasley DE, released signed w/Tenn
9 NYG Ereck Flowers OT, released signed w/3 other teams since
10 StL Todd Gurley RB, released signed w/Atl
1 resigned after moving to a lesser position
2014
1 Hou Jadeveon Clowney DE, released signed w/Sea
2 StLou Greg Robinson OT, traded to Lions, released signed w/Browns
3 Jax Blake Bortles QB, released signed w/LA
4 Bills Sammy Watkins WR, traded to Rams, released signed w/KC
5 Oak Khalil Mack LB, traded to Chicago
6 Atl Jake Matthews OT, resigned w/Atl
7 TB Mike Evans WR, resigned by TB
8 Cle Justin Gilbert CB, traded to Pitt
9 Min Anthony Barr LB, resigned w/Minn
10 Det Eric Ebron TE, released signed w/Indy, released signed w/Pitt
3 resigned, none top 5 picks
2013
1 KC Eric Fisher OT, resigned KC
2 Jax Luke Joeckel OT, released signed w/Sea
3 Mia Dion Jordan DE, released signed w/Sea, released signed w/Oak
4 Phi Lane Johnson OT, resigned w/Phi
5 Det Ezekiel Ansah DE, released signed w/Sea
6 Cle Barkevious Mingo DE, on 6th now w/Chi
7 Ari Jonathan Cooper G, on 7th team now w/Oak
8 StL Tavon Austin WR, traded to Dal
9 NYJ Dee Milliner CB, waived inj'd
10 Tenn Chance Warmack G, released signed w/Phi, released signed w/Sea
2 resigned both in top 5
2016
1 LA Jared Goff QB, 5th yr option picked up
2 Phi Carson Wentz QB, resigned w/Phi
3 SD Joey Bosa DE, 5th year option picked up
4 Dal Ezekiel Elliott RB, 5th year option picked up
5 Jax Jalen Ramsey CB, traded to LA
6 Balt Ronnie Stanley OT, 5th year option picked up
7 SF DeForest Buckner DE, traded to Colts
8 Ten Jack Conklin OT, released signed w/Browns
9 Chi Leonard Floyd LB, released signed w/LV
10 NYG Eli Apple CB, traded to NO
1 resigned 1 in top 5 4 5th year options still on same team, 3 on same team
So the 2016 appears to be the best year w/ 1/2 the players still on the same roster. So the idea that somehow top 10 picks are somehow these surefire things just isn't true, only 11 of the 40 players on the same teams, even in top 5 picks it was only 7 of the 20 are still on the same team; and that is propped up greatly by the 2016 group that has 1 resigned and 3 on 5th year options, not guaranteed all will be back(but probable). 2016 is also the exception to this entire 4 year review.
Again we need to rethink how we view the draft/GM's/teams, especially the top of the draft. It just isn't this golden goose that gives you some 8-10 year uber player. There is a chance it can happen, but it's not a good one. Top 5 was about 30%, top 10 was 27%. Chances are better you will miss then hit.
It makes me think that it may be better to trade down than to trade up. Not as a hard and fast thing you do all the time. But trading up in the draft... well, you'd better be pretty certain before you spend draft picks to trade up. We've talked about this before. Having extra draft picks softens the blow when there are whiffs in the draft. On the other hand, when you have fewer picks it hurts more when you miss on picks. And Pace's wheelhouse seems to be in those rounds following the first round anyway.