Just as many things can go wrong on a running play. Bad exchange, fumble, loss of yardage, penalty, etc. We're assuming a run play would have been effective...it might not have been.
Sure, but less likely. Holding calls, false starts, etc are more likely on a pass play. So is a significant loss (sack). I'd argue that a turnover (tipped pass, sack-fumble, bobbled pass) is more common too.
Dunno but seems to me when you have the NFL's top RB and need only a yard (with 2-3 shots to win), I think running the ball is the way to go.
What do you have to back up the claim you are making that holding and false starts occur on pass plays more than run plays? Because based on stats 60% of holding penalties occur on running plays:
As for a negative yardage play...welp...thats more likely on a run too: "Thanks to our research friends at ProFootball Reference, I queried offensive plays that gained zero yards or less.
Last season there were 2,798 offensive plays that resulted in zero yards gained or less.
Those 2,798 plays represent nearly 9% of all offensive plays called in the NFL.
Put another way – a negative play occurred once about every 11 plays. Here’s where it gets interesting.
Of those 2,798 plays, 2,232 of them involved the RB position."
So most holding penalties occur on runs, most 0 yard or negative yard plays occur on runs. Maybe you might want to rethink your position here. Everyone is expecting the run...you have multiple opportunities to score and one of the best QB's in the game. Is it that outlandish to pass there? No.
Sure, but less likely. Holding calls, false starts, etc are more likely on a pass play. So is a significant loss (sack). I'd argue that a turnover (tipped pass, sack-fumble, bobbled pass) is more common too.
Dunno but seems to me when you have the NFL's top RB and need only a yard (with 2-3 shots to win), I think running the ball is the way to go.
What do you have to back up the claim you are making that holding and false starts occur on pass plays more than run plays? Because based on stats 60% of holding penalties occur on running plays:
As for a negative yardage play...welp...thats more likely on a run too: "Thanks to our research friends at ProFootball Reference, I queried offensive plays that gained zero yards or less.
Last season there were 2,798 offensive plays that resulted in zero yards gained or less.
Those 2,798 plays represent nearly 9% of all offensive plays called in the NFL.
Put another way – a negative play occurred once about every 11 plays. Here’s where it gets interesting.
Of those 2,798 plays, 2,232 of them involved the RB position."
So most holding penalties occur on runs, most 0 yard or negative yard plays occur on runs. Maybe you might want to rethink your position here. Everyone is expecting the run...you have multiple opportunities to score and one of the best QB's in the game. Is it that outlandish to pass there? No.
I said "significant negative play". How many running plays result in a loss of 5+ yards? And "zero yards" isn't a negative play. By that measure every incomplete pass was also a negative play.
As far as holding penalties go, that stat surprises me. I wonder how many holding penalties are called on 1-yard-goal line runs? I would suspect few. On 1st & 10 stretch runs, probably way more common.
I'll agree to disagree with you here.
But yeah, I'll stick to my position. When you are a running team, you have the best absolute-beast RB in the league, a good run-blocking OL, are averaging well over 4 ypc in the game, and you need only 1 yard to win the Super Bowl with the clock not an immediate issue, then yeah I think you run the ball. Is the defense EVER playing quarters coverage with a soft box on 1 yard-to-go plays? Nope, never.
Just as many things can go wrong on a running play. Bad exchange, fumble, loss of yardage, penalty, etc. We're assuming a run play would have been effective...it might not have been.
Sure, but less likely. Holding calls, false starts, etc are more likely on a pass play. So is a significant loss (sack). I'd argue that a turnover (tipped pass, sack-fumble, bobbled pass) is more common too.
Dunno but seems to me when you have the NFL's top RB and need only a yard (with 2-3 shots to win), I think running the ball is the way to go.
+1
Yes, it may not have worked. Nothing is a sure thing. But c'mon. You have Marshawn Lynch in his prime, and blowing up tacklers like knocking down bowling pins... you have 1 yard to score. Don't over think it. Give him the ball. You made an excellent point in that Marshawn Lynch was almost always facing 8 in the box - and they couldn't stop him if they had 20 in the box. He reminded me of Walter Payton in those short yardage situations. The entire stadium would KNOW he was getting the ball. The defense FOR SURE would know he was getting the ball - a bazillion TV viewers knew he was getting the ball... and he did, and he would get that yard for the score. It was money.
Don't pull a Marc Trestman and overthink it. Just hand off the ball, take the TD and remember to pack the Lombardi Trophy when you head for the airport to fly home.
Sure, but less likely. Holding calls, false starts, etc are more likely on a pass play. So is a significant loss (sack). I'd argue that a turnover (tipped pass, sack-fumble, bobbled pass) is more common too.
Dunno but seems to me when you have the NFL's top RB and need only a yard (with 2-3 shots to win), I think running the ball is the way to go.
+1
Yes, it may not have worked. Nothing is a sure thing. But c'mon. You have Marshawn Lynch in his prime, and blowing up tacklers like knocking down bowling pins... you have 1 yard to score. Don't over think it. Give him the ball. You made an excellent point in that Marshawn Lynch was almost always facing 8 in the box - and they couldn't stop him if they had 20 in the box. He reminded me of Walter Payton in those short yardage situations. The entire stadium would KNOW he was getting the ball. The defense FOR SURE would know he was getting the ball - a bazillion TV viewers knew he was getting the ball... and he did, and he would get that yard for the score. It was money.
Don't pull a Marc Trestman and overthink it. Just hand off the ball, take the TD and remember to pack the Lombardi Trophy when you head for the airport to fly home.
Yep
People have twisted themselves into pretzels trying to defend that decision.
What is the call most times you have 3rd/4th and inches? Running the ball
Is the defense "expecting" a run? Of course. You do it anyway.
What is the call most times you have 3rd & 10? Or are out of timeouts and need a score? Passing the ball
Is the defense "expecting" a pass? Of course. You do it anyway.
Yes, it may not have worked. Nothing is a sure thing. But c'mon. You have Marshawn Lynch in his prime, and blowing up tacklers like knocking down bowling pins... you have 1 yard to score. Don't over think it. Give him the ball. You made an excellent point in that Marshawn Lynch was almost always facing 8 in the box - and they couldn't stop him if they had 20 in the box. He reminded me of Walter Payton in those short yardage situations. The entire stadium would KNOW he was getting the ball. The defense FOR SURE would know he was getting the ball - a bazillion TV viewers knew he was getting the ball... and he did, and he would get that yard for the score. It was money.
Don't pull a Marc Trestman and overthink it. Just hand off the ball, take the TD and remember to pack the Lombardi Trophy when you head for the airport to fly home.
Yep
People have twisted themselves into pretzels trying to defend that decision.
What is the call most times you have 3rd/4th and inches? Running the ball
Is the defense "expecting" a run? Of course. You do it anyway.
What is the call most times you have 3rd & 10? Or are out of timeouts and need a score? Passing the ball
Is the defense "expecting" a pass? Of course. You do it anyway.
There's no twisting involved. The facts are all there but people have a pre-baked narrative in their head because of the outcome of the play. You run that play another 99 times in that same situation and you either get a TD or at worst an incompletion.
The only way you can say that was the wrong call is if you completely ignore the evidence in front of you.
I like simple clean answers too but in this case you need to scratch more than just the surface of things to understand the decision making behind it.
Anyway I'm done talking about this. Believe what you want.
People have twisted themselves into pretzels trying to defend that decision.
What is the call most times you have 3rd/4th and inches? Running the ball
Is the defense "expecting" a run? Of course. You do it anyway.
What is the call most times you have 3rd & 10? Or are out of timeouts and need a score? Passing the ball
Is the defense "expecting" a pass? Of course. You do it anyway.
There's no twisting involved. The facts are all there but people have a pre-baked narrative in their head because of the outcome of the play. You run that play another 99 times in that same situation and you either get a TD or at worst an incompletion.
The only way you can say that was the wrong call is if you completely ignore the evidence in front of you.
I like simple clean answers too but in this case you need to scratch more than just the surface of things to understand the decision making behind it.
Anyway I'm done talking about this. Believe what you want.
It's a fun "what if" thing if nothing else. It's the dreaded off-season and we are having to dig up stuff like this to talk about to break the boredom :-)