OFFICIAL off season mock thread for Free Agency and draft
Apr 21, 2020 16:49:51 GMT -6
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britishbearfan likes this
Post by riczaj01 on Apr 21, 2020 16:49:51 GMT -6
but 18 out of 100 picks isn't a good %, definitely nothing you would want to rely on; .18%, you staking your job, your retirement, or your future on that? I'll take being happy w/starters and/or probowlers/all pro's no matter where he gets them when the odds are so terribly stacked in your favor.
It's why I no longer have a negative outlook on this stuff; and choose to be positve. You can be negative on 100% of moves a GM does and come out right 80% of the time. That is a TON of false positive results feeding your negative feelings. I know I'm not likely going to be right, but I'd rather be disappointed after the fact then be negative all the time.
For instance, what if Kevin White had just become a solid starter @ WR? We would now have our speed threat on the roster and have a 1-2-3 punch of Robinson-White-Miller....that's damn good! Even with no pro-bowls.
How about Floyd? Obviously, he ended up being a better pick than White but imagine if he had just panned out a solid #OLB/edge rusher. We wouldn't have had to pay Quinn or, if we had anyway, we would have 3 good edge rush threats at OLB.
I don't think I need to even bother talking about Trubisky. Deshaun Watson level of play at QB probably gets us to the Super Bowl in 2018 and into the playoffs last year.
I think a lot of GMs fall into the same destructive pattern of thinking that investors tend to do. Both dream of that one big score, that one huge HIT, that one great choice that became a windfall. While it's great to get that, it's actually more important to just avoid big misses and large losses. The Bears are poised to have 3 straight top-10 picks who aren't good enough to warrant a 2nd contract with the team. That's the stock equivalent of taking a bath on a major portfolio investment.
It's the stat you used for stating the 1st rd pick is more valuable then the others. I'm the one that posted earlier in the year that we need to rethink how we look at success/fail/bust based on the stats given by an actual nfl scout. quick review: quality starters again 75% success for the top 5. 58% for pick 6 through 10 and it quickly drops to 50-55% for the rest of the first round that for quality starters.
Again not exactly great odds for even good starters. No one wants to put that much risk in a little better then a coinflip. Yet we act like the GM should hit on most if not all the 1st rounders and especially the top 10.
As for player X that didn't work here compared to player y that worked somewhere else; especially at qb, well I don't think it's a fair comp. I tend to agree Watson probably is better here, but I'm not sure he gets us to a SB. And while I don't think Tru is an all pro or winning SB's in KC, I think he looks a lot better after getting to sit and learn 1 season and getting to know how the players/coaches react in that system. I also think Mahomes is likely struggling if not a bust here. What he does in KC isn't working w/Fox/Loggains, and he cannot make his magic w/out all pro/brow bowl talent like Hill and Kelce, and a really reliable 3rd option in Watkins.
I think Owners, GM's and the scouts and the coaches fail to understand how much of these guys need to fill the right role in the right scheme and have the right lvl of talent around them to truly live up to their full potential. The Macks, zeke Elliots that are not scheme reliant are truly rare. These guys pick high based on talent and college tape when they were facing mostly guys that won't ever see the nfl; and the ones from the power schools have so much more talent then the vast majority of others that the college tape can be very skewed.
They need to find the kids that fit the role the team wants them to fill more then what the tape vs other college kids how or how athletic they are.
***Sorry didn't get to read and respond to everything you wrote here, was in the car w/my wife and 2 kids, trying to read/comprehend and respond was near impossible