Post by GrizzlyBear on Mar 15, 2017 11:10:22 GMT -6
www.bagadonutssports.com/blog/2017/3/14/2djkwgpeohle28yubjfacls4ahue5x
Ryan Pace and the Bears struck out on their primary free agent targets. They rebounded nicely on the secondary market but this team still looks to be multiple successful drafts away from true contention. The NFL’s charter franchise does have a new quarterback after 8 seasons however. Mike Glennon hopes to be the “Face of the Franchise” going forward. Ryan Pace also stated, “Mike Glennon is our Starting Quarterback”. The 2013 3rd round pick of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers out of North Carolina State doesn’t lack confidence and he’ll be given the opportunity to be the guy in Chicago. Glennon’s 3-year $45 million contract is a essentially a one-year prove it deal. Even though Ryan Pace said that Glennon’s arrival could affect the round in which a new QB is drafted, many analysts still believe that his presence won’t alter the Bears long-term pursuit for a new signal caller. It is likely that the Bears long-term answer at the league’s most important position isn’t currently on the Chicago roster. The Bears have 7 selections in April’s draft and 2 of them are considered to be premium picks. Ryan Pace is slated to pick 3rd and 36th overall and there are four potential franchise types that could be in play.
Deshaun Watson/Clemson
Watson is 6’2 215 pounds and led Clemson to two consecutive National Championship games. Watson is a natural leader, is physically gifted, and is equipped with outstanding intangibles and work ethic. Watson does however have less than ideal arm strength, struggles with accuracy and played with an excellent supporting cast in college. There are widely varying opinions on Watson and his game will be heavily praised and scrutinized in the lead up to April.
Mitchell Trubisky/North Carolina
The 6’2 Tar Heel burst onto the college scene this past season as a Redshirt Junior. Trubisky has enough arm strength, a quick delivery, and looks the part of a franchise leader. Trubisky throws off of his back foot too often and usually is all arm when throwing the ball on the run. Trubisky was only a one-year starter and will need to prove that he can handle a more complex NFL system. Trubisky would be better off with a team that has a solid offensive infrastructure in place and should probably sit for much of his rookie season.
DeShone Kizer/Notre Dame
DeShone Kizer is the positional prototype at 6’4 233 pounds and possesses a cannon for a right arm. He was given a lot of responsibility at Notre Dame and thrived with a great supporting cast in 2015. Kizer had a bit of a national coming out party in week 1 versus Texas last season in which he looked like a future #1 overall pick. Kizer struggled at times throughout the year on a bad Fighting Irish squad. He’s also a former baseball player that displays inconsistent mechanics and a throwing motion that gets long. Kizer has big time upside with projectable NFL starter traits but he’ll have to prove that some of the issues plaguing him were an aberration.
Patrick Mahomes/Texas Tech
Mahomes checks every box from a physical standpoint. He has huge arm talent and he reminds some of Matthew Stafford and Brett Favre because of his traits and playing style. Mahomes is the son of former league relief pitcher Pat Mahomes. He has sloppy mechanics and played in Hal Mumme’s prolific Air Raid offense. NFL starters rarely come out of that system and find professional success but there’s never been a QB from that system as talented as Mahomes is.
If Ryan Pace and his scouting staff are convinced that one of these guys can be a franchise level QB than it’s imperative that they pounce on the opportunity. Successful NFL starters are generally found in the draft and usually within the first two rounds. Pittsburgh’s Nathan Peterman, Miami’s Brad Kaaya, and Davis Webb out of California are other QB options in the upcoming class but the Bears should stay away from them. I believe that those three quarterbacks are future NFL backups. There are generally two schools of thought about “developmental quarterbacks”. When Ryan Pace was hired as Bears General Manager, he discussed the importance of the quarterback position and stated that in a perfect world he’d draft a developmental prospect every year. There have been fans and media that have admonished Pace for not following his own declaration during his tenure. Pace has made 15 picks as GM of the Bears and none of them have been spent on the game’s most important and high profile position. In hindsight, it’s easy to criticize Pace for not taking the 4th round plunge on Dallas Cowboys star Dak Prescott. 32 NFL teams passed on Prescott three plus times and he’s definitely the exception rather than the rule. For all the clamoring over magical developmental quarterbacks that somehow are destined to become NFL starters, there is an extremely low hit rate. It’s easy to bring up Prescott, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and Tyrod Taylor when detailing why the Bears have to select a QB regardless of draft round. I don’t subscribe to this logic. There have been 56 quarterbacks drafted in rounds 3-7 since 2010 and four of them are successful NFL starters.
2010 NFL Draft
Round 3: Colt McCoy
Round 4: Mike Kafka
Round 5: John Skelton, Jon Crompton
Round 6: Rusty Smith, Dan LeFevour, Joe Webb, Tony Pike
Round 7: Levi Brown, Sean Canfield, Zac Robinson
2011 NFL Draft
3rd Round: Ryan Mallett
5th Round: Ricky Stanzi, T.J. Yates
6th Round: Nathan Enderle, Tyrod Taylor
7th Round: Greg McElroy
2012 NFL Draft
3rd Round: Russell Wilson, Nick Foles
4th Round: Kirk Cousins
6th Round: Ryan Lindley
7th Round: B.J. Coleman, Chandler Harnisch
2013 NFL Draft
3rd Round: Mike Glennon
4th Round: Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib
5th Round: Tyler Wilson, Landry Jones
7th Round: Brad Sorensen, Zac Dysert, B.J. Daniels, Sean Renfree
2014 NFL Draft
4th Round: Logan Thomas, Tom Savage
5th Round: Aaron Murray, AJ McCarron
6th Round: Zach Mettenberger, David Fales, Keith Wenning, Tajh Boyd, Garrett Gilbert
2015 NFL Draft
3rd Round: Garrett Grayson, Sean Mannion
4th Round: Bryce Petty
5th Round: Brett Hundley
7th Round: Trevor Siemian
2016 NFL Draft
3rd Round: Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler
4th Round: Connor Cook, Dak Prescott, Cardale Jones
5th Round: Kevin Hogan
6th Round: Nate Sudfeld, Jake Rudock, Brandon Allen, Jeff Driskel
7th Round: Brandon Doughty
Wilson, Cousins, and Prescott are the usual reasons that are given for drafting mid-to-late round quarterbacks. Those guys are anomalies. They are the exception to the rule. Tyrod Taylor is another exception. Guys like Mike Glennon, Trevor Siemian, and AJ McCarron are hoping to be exceptions as well. Teams like the Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, and Baltimore Ravens have been known to draft quarterbacks frequently. Those teams have fairly established rosters and also play the supplemental pick formula with great ease. The Chicago Bears are not these teams. The current iteration of the beloved is filled with roster holes. The Bears need to fill these vacancies. I hope Ryan Pace sees the future, attacks the draft, and secures the long-term answer at the QB position for the Bears. However, if Pace doesn’t see a possible franchise QB in the 2017 bunch, he should worry about filling the crater sized holes on his roster instead of reaching for a quarterback that will most likely be bad. There’s a chance that Pace could hit on a mid-round signal caller but it’s much more likely to secure contributors for the 53 man roster instead. And in a loaded draft class that is deep in need areas (CB, S, TE) that is a better outcome than securing someone that might be relegated to career clipboard status.
Deshaun Watson/Clemson
Watson is 6’2 215 pounds and led Clemson to two consecutive National Championship games. Watson is a natural leader, is physically gifted, and is equipped with outstanding intangibles and work ethic. Watson does however have less than ideal arm strength, struggles with accuracy and played with an excellent supporting cast in college. There are widely varying opinions on Watson and his game will be heavily praised and scrutinized in the lead up to April.
Mitchell Trubisky/North Carolina
The 6’2 Tar Heel burst onto the college scene this past season as a Redshirt Junior. Trubisky has enough arm strength, a quick delivery, and looks the part of a franchise leader. Trubisky throws off of his back foot too often and usually is all arm when throwing the ball on the run. Trubisky was only a one-year starter and will need to prove that he can handle a more complex NFL system. Trubisky would be better off with a team that has a solid offensive infrastructure in place and should probably sit for much of his rookie season.
DeShone Kizer/Notre Dame
DeShone Kizer is the positional prototype at 6’4 233 pounds and possesses a cannon for a right arm. He was given a lot of responsibility at Notre Dame and thrived with a great supporting cast in 2015. Kizer had a bit of a national coming out party in week 1 versus Texas last season in which he looked like a future #1 overall pick. Kizer struggled at times throughout the year on a bad Fighting Irish squad. He’s also a former baseball player that displays inconsistent mechanics and a throwing motion that gets long. Kizer has big time upside with projectable NFL starter traits but he’ll have to prove that some of the issues plaguing him were an aberration.
Patrick Mahomes/Texas Tech
Mahomes checks every box from a physical standpoint. He has huge arm talent and he reminds some of Matthew Stafford and Brett Favre because of his traits and playing style. Mahomes is the son of former league relief pitcher Pat Mahomes. He has sloppy mechanics and played in Hal Mumme’s prolific Air Raid offense. NFL starters rarely come out of that system and find professional success but there’s never been a QB from that system as talented as Mahomes is.
If Ryan Pace and his scouting staff are convinced that one of these guys can be a franchise level QB than it’s imperative that they pounce on the opportunity. Successful NFL starters are generally found in the draft and usually within the first two rounds. Pittsburgh’s Nathan Peterman, Miami’s Brad Kaaya, and Davis Webb out of California are other QB options in the upcoming class but the Bears should stay away from them. I believe that those three quarterbacks are future NFL backups. There are generally two schools of thought about “developmental quarterbacks”. When Ryan Pace was hired as Bears General Manager, he discussed the importance of the quarterback position and stated that in a perfect world he’d draft a developmental prospect every year. There have been fans and media that have admonished Pace for not following his own declaration during his tenure. Pace has made 15 picks as GM of the Bears and none of them have been spent on the game’s most important and high profile position. In hindsight, it’s easy to criticize Pace for not taking the 4th round plunge on Dallas Cowboys star Dak Prescott. 32 NFL teams passed on Prescott three plus times and he’s definitely the exception rather than the rule. For all the clamoring over magical developmental quarterbacks that somehow are destined to become NFL starters, there is an extremely low hit rate. It’s easy to bring up Prescott, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and Tyrod Taylor when detailing why the Bears have to select a QB regardless of draft round. I don’t subscribe to this logic. There have been 56 quarterbacks drafted in rounds 3-7 since 2010 and four of them are successful NFL starters.
2010 NFL Draft
Round 3: Colt McCoy
Round 4: Mike Kafka
Round 5: John Skelton, Jon Crompton
Round 6: Rusty Smith, Dan LeFevour, Joe Webb, Tony Pike
Round 7: Levi Brown, Sean Canfield, Zac Robinson
2011 NFL Draft
3rd Round: Ryan Mallett
5th Round: Ricky Stanzi, T.J. Yates
6th Round: Nathan Enderle, Tyrod Taylor
7th Round: Greg McElroy
2012 NFL Draft
3rd Round: Russell Wilson, Nick Foles
4th Round: Kirk Cousins
6th Round: Ryan Lindley
7th Round: B.J. Coleman, Chandler Harnisch
2013 NFL Draft
3rd Round: Mike Glennon
4th Round: Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib
5th Round: Tyler Wilson, Landry Jones
7th Round: Brad Sorensen, Zac Dysert, B.J. Daniels, Sean Renfree
2014 NFL Draft
4th Round: Logan Thomas, Tom Savage
5th Round: Aaron Murray, AJ McCarron
6th Round: Zach Mettenberger, David Fales, Keith Wenning, Tajh Boyd, Garrett Gilbert
2015 NFL Draft
3rd Round: Garrett Grayson, Sean Mannion
4th Round: Bryce Petty
5th Round: Brett Hundley
7th Round: Trevor Siemian
2016 NFL Draft
3rd Round: Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler
4th Round: Connor Cook, Dak Prescott, Cardale Jones
5th Round: Kevin Hogan
6th Round: Nate Sudfeld, Jake Rudock, Brandon Allen, Jeff Driskel
7th Round: Brandon Doughty
Wilson, Cousins, and Prescott are the usual reasons that are given for drafting mid-to-late round quarterbacks. Those guys are anomalies. They are the exception to the rule. Tyrod Taylor is another exception. Guys like Mike Glennon, Trevor Siemian, and AJ McCarron are hoping to be exceptions as well. Teams like the Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, and Baltimore Ravens have been known to draft quarterbacks frequently. Those teams have fairly established rosters and also play the supplemental pick formula with great ease. The Chicago Bears are not these teams. The current iteration of the beloved is filled with roster holes. The Bears need to fill these vacancies. I hope Ryan Pace sees the future, attacks the draft, and secures the long-term answer at the QB position for the Bears. However, if Pace doesn’t see a possible franchise QB in the 2017 bunch, he should worry about filling the crater sized holes on his roster instead of reaching for a quarterback that will most likely be bad. There’s a chance that Pace could hit on a mid-round signal caller but it’s much more likely to secure contributors for the 53 man roster instead. And in a loaded draft class that is deep in need areas (CB, S, TE) that is a better outcome than securing someone that might be relegated to career clipboard status.
