Post by Whisky Beer Bob on Mar 3, 2017 19:59:16 GMT -6
I love the idea of the chance to draft Garrett. But we need a QB. We need help on the O side. The defense has a few key building blocks BUT the O side.....I say draft who we have highest ranked. If we do end up grabbing a QB with our first, I just hope he can sit for a year and let the game slow down for him. I do like the idea of possibly trading a few spots down for more picks but what do I know? I am a Canadian that has to cheer for his local pro football team who has Trestman as a HC. Le sigh!!!!!
If we had one year to turn everything around I could kind of understand that but in the long run you can't just keep getting on the QB draft pick merry go round. It's not going to do any good if we finally get our guy and there's nothing around him because we blew all our best picks year after year on QBs who didn't work out.
That's the danger in going after need instead BPA. You draft a QB out of need and he doesn't work out, so you're forced to draft another one because you still need one. Of course that prior pick is now a total loss as that QB is no longer contributing anything significant to the team. Striking out on a QB is big loss and your team better be talented enough to absorb the hit of a wasted draft pick. That's not the Bears right now.
This is only going to get worse with QBs. Because of the CBA more QBs are going to be entering the draft with only a year or two of film to maximize their earning potential. This makes it even harder to evaluate how a QB might perform in the NFL. Dropping high 1st round picks on many of these guys is a serious gamble. Get snake eyes a couple times and not only do you not have a QB you may not have many playmakers either.
How many years have the Bears been on the draft a QB merry go round? None. The most important position in football, the one position where if you find the right guy, you can cover up deficiencies not only on OFF but DEF as well. I'll say it again most important position.But once again many posters are arguing to ignore the position again. The argument seems to either be...(1) we won't draft this high again so pick some other position. Of course that meas next draft because we can't do worse that 3-13 again, if the QB position still isn't solved, you pick around 10th and have to reach or (2) I'm scared to draft a QB because so many of them don't turn out so they shouldn't draft one.
Both of those arguments are trading short term improvement for long term improvement. Who is the best pass rusher in football? Miller in Denver? Do you think the Packers would trade Rogers straight up for Miller? Would the Broncos? If the answers to those questions aren't 'NO' and 'YES' than you don't know anything about football.
GO back and check the numbers of drafting QBs vs not drafted QBs. Use the current CBA years. If you don't draft a QB on day one your odds of finding a long term starting QB drop a great deal. Everyone remembers Wilson, Dalton, Carr, Dak but they weren't the only QBs drafted late in the draft, they are only a handful of the QBs drafted.
Frankly, its past the point of BPA or need. If the Bears don't fix the QB position they will never be a consistent winning franchise. Its funny how everyone points to the Pats as a team that didn't draft a QB early but they completely miss the point. They fixed the QB problem, and now they draft last and guess what...they still win. They don't need to draft those 'once in a generation DEF PB/AP talents.' Know why? They don't have a QB problem. End of story. Turn off the lights.
I've said it before. Next season when the Bears have the best DEF in the league and go 7-9 losing games 17-12, I don't want to hear any whining about not reaching for a QB with the 11th pick. This is the year that if a QB is there at 3, you take him. If in two years he didn't pan out, you draft another one. The other option is turning in the Bears of Old. Great DEF but can't win more than 8 games consistently. But hey, at least they won't have reach for a QB!
I have absolutely no opinion on Trubisky, but at the point I see it like this, two of these 4 guys: Garret and/or one of the three top QB's (Watson, Kizer and Trub) will be there. Pace should make his list and wait. We need to get a QB this year and cannot afford to wait until 2nd, so I sure hope he has these guys rated highly. I could live with a best D guy on board too, maybe its not Garrett but Pace cannot **** this up. If he does, he can go sailing with 20th century next year.
If we had one year to turn everything around I could kind of understand that but in the long run you can't just keep getting on the QB draft pick merry go round. It's not going to do any good if we finally get our guy and there's nothing around him because we blew all our best picks year after year on QBs who didn't work out.
That's the danger in going after need instead BPA. You draft a QB out of need and he doesn't work out, so you're forced to draft another one because you still need one. Of course that prior pick is now a total loss as that QB is no longer contributing anything significant to the team. Striking out on a QB is big loss and your team better be talented enough to absorb the hit of a wasted draft pick. That's not the Bears right now.
This is only going to get worse with QBs. Because of the CBA more QBs are going to be entering the draft with only a year or two of film to maximize their earning potential. This makes it even harder to evaluate how a QB might perform in the NFL. Dropping high 1st round picks on many of these guys is a serious gamble. Get snake eyes a couple times and not only do you not have a QB you may not have many playmakers either.
How many years have the Bears been on the draft a QB merry go round? None. The most important position in football, the one position where if you find the right guy, you can cover up deficiencies not only on OFF but DEF as well. I'll say it again most important position.But once again many posters are arguing to ignore the position again. The argument seems to either be...(1) we won't draft this high again so pick some other position. Of course that meas next draft because we can't do worse that 3-13 again, if the QB position still isn't solved, you pick around 10th and have to reach or (2) I'm scared to draft a QB because so many of them don't turn out so they shouldn't draft one.
Both of those arguments are trading short term improvement for long term improvement. Who is the best pass rusher in football? Miller in Denver? Do you think the Packers would trade Rogers straight up for Miller? Would the Broncos? If the answers to those questions aren't 'NO' and 'YES' than you don't know anything about football.
GO back and check the numbers of drafting QBs vs not drafted QBs. Use the current CBA years. If you don't draft a QB on day one your odds of finding a long term starting QB drop a great deal. Everyone remembers Wilson, Dalton, Carr, Dak but they weren't the only QBs drafted late in the draft, they are only a handful of the QBs drafted.
Frankly, its past the point of BPA or need. If the Bears don't fix the QB position they will never be a consistent winning franchise. Its funny how everyone points to the Pats as a team that didn't draft a QB early but they completely miss the point. They fixed the QB problem, and now they draft last and guess what...they still win. They don't need to draft those 'once in a generation DEF PB/AP talents.' Know why? They don't have a QB problem. End of story. Turn off the lights.
I've said it before. Next season when the Bears have the best DEF in the league and go 7-9 losing games 17-12, I don't want to hear any whining about not reaching for a QB with the 11th pick. This is the year that if a QB is there at 3, you take him. If in two years he didn't pan out, you draft another one. The other option is turning in the Bears of Old. Great DEF but can't win more than 8 games consistently. But hey, at least they won't have reach for a QB!
+1,000 All of those are excellent points. Frankly, I'd rather see us try and draft a guy and fail, than to not even TRY to draft a franchise QB.
Its again funny to me that every, and I mean EVERY sports writer in Chicago says the Bears have to solve the QB problem any possible way they can. Yet there are still posters who seem to believe that the #3 pick to too much to spend on the most important position in football. Its like we are planning a meal for our significant other but we want to spend most of our money on getting a great salad dressing. We can buy that un-labeled hunk of frozen meat that is marked down 66%.
"General manager John Schneider guaranteed $10 million in free agency to Matt Flynn, a player he knew from Green Bay, seemingly making him the starter. A month later, the Seahawks drafted Russell Wilson in the third round, and they also had incumbent Tarvaris Jackson involved in the competition.
The hunch the Seahawks played with Wilson panned out sooner than they could have imagined. The plan was to cast and keep casting until they found the franchise quarterback they needed.
"Our thing was like, 'We're going to keep doing this bridge thing, if you will, until we find our guy,'" Schneider said.:
Of course people are going to focus on the wrong thing here and exclaim--They found Wilson later in the draft!!! BUT THAT ISN"T THE POINT!!!!
This is the point, and I underlined it for all of us. They knew they had to find the QB, any way possible. Even if it meant drafting one right after another.
Right now the Bears have the third pick. They can start their search for their QB with a high first round pick. Pace needs to bite the bullet and go for it. Right now, this year. Does it have to be the #3? Nope. But it could be. Does it have to be in the 2nd? Nope but they can't wait longer than that. Could it be FA? It could be, but he has to have Schneider's mindset that he will do whatever it takes.
I laugh when I realize how similar this discussion sounds like last years. Last year the Bears couldn't afford to draft a QB because there were one in a generation elite multiple PB/AP DEF players that would drop and since they weren't going to be drafting that high again Pace needed to draft one of them. Now I'm reading "We won't be drafting this high again so we should pick that one in a generation multiple BP/APDEF player." How did that turn out for us last year?
I'm about done with this discussion because its turning pointless. Some of us just can't see past the idea that 'DEF RULEZ! WE DON'T NEED NO QB!!'
If we had one year to turn everything around I could kind of understand that but in the long run you can't just keep getting on the QB draft pick merry go round. It's not going to do any good if we finally get our guy and there's nothing around him because we blew all our best picks year after year on QBs who didn't work out.
That's the danger in going after need instead BPA. You draft a QB out of need and he doesn't work out, so you're forced to draft another one because you still need one. Of course that prior pick is now a total loss as that QB is no longer contributing anything significant to the team. Striking out on a QB is big loss and your team better be talented enough to absorb the hit of a wasted draft pick. That's not the Bears right now.
This is only going to get worse with QBs. Because of the CBA more QBs are going to be entering the draft with only a year or two of film to maximize their earning potential. This makes it even harder to evaluate how a QB might perform in the NFL. Dropping high 1st round picks on many of these guys is a serious gamble. Get snake eyes a couple times and not only do you not have a QB you may not have many playmakers either.
But there are plenty of ways to play the what if game. What if you build a really good defense but you don't have the right QB and you can't win? I can remember a team in recent memory that went down that road. Wait.... that was us....
Can you get on the QB draft carousel year after year and squander picks? You certainly can, and that is my biggest fear. But I have more faith in Pace that our most recent run of GMs, and the simple truth of the matter is.... you won't get far without one and you won't get one unless you try. And trying for a QB has inherent risk. Seriously, if were easy, every team would have one.
The only real infrastructure you need before going after a QB is a good OL, a good RB and some receiving threats. The other part of it is having a staff that knows how to bring along a new QB.
I think we have enough OL. We have a good RB. Our WR is not where it needs to be, but is is easier to get than a QB is. As far as the part about the staff. That worries me. But is the solution not to worry about a QB until we have the right people? We could be stuck in the mud for even more decades. When you have the right QB, building becomes relatively easy. I really believe that you can build a whole team easier than you can get the right QB.
In Chicago, we have built a really good defense. Twice. We actually built a pretty damned good offense (less QB) with the WR, TE and RB talent we had under Trestman. We have done all of that in less time than it has taken to get our QB. I am not worried about getting the other pieces. We can and have done that. The part that has eluded us is the QB, and history has shown that we won't get anywhere without that piece.
2016 NFL top def teams by ppg NE (SB winner, HoF qb possibly greatest of all time) NYG out in first round(0-1) Sea out in 2nd round(1-1) Den no playoffs Dal out in 2nd round(0-1) Min no playoffs KC out in 2nd round(0-1) Ciny no playoffs Balt no playoffs Pitt (out in 3rd round 2-1, lost to #1 def and HoF qb possibly greatest of all time)
All those great defs, and only 2 had more then 1 win, and all three that did win had franchise qb's.
2015 top def Sea(out in 2nd round 1-1) Cincy(out in 1st round 0-1) KC(out in 2nd round 1-1) Den(SB winner 3-0, hof qb, although on last leg) Minny(out in first round(0-1) Car(2-1 lost in sb) Ari(lost in 3rd round, 1-1) Hou lost in 1st round 0-1) NYJ( no playoffs) NE(Lost in 3rd round 1-1) Teams that one, again franchise qb's. And before you say Manning didn't make a difference, where was Den this year w/that great def w/no qb?
2014 top def Sea(3-1 lost to future hof qb) KC (no playoffs) Det (lost in first round 0-1) Buff (no playoffs) Ari (lost in first round 0-1) Balt (lost in 2nd round 1-1) Hou (no playoffs) NE (won sb w/future hof qb) Cle (no playoffs) SF (no playoffs)
only teams to win had franchise qb's
2013 top def Sea(won sb has franchise qb) Car (lost in 2nd round 0-1) SF (lost in 3rd round 2-1) NO (lost in 2nd round 1-1) Cincy (lost in first round 0-1) KC (lost in first round 0-1) Ari (no playoffs) Mia (no playoffs) Indy(lost in 2nd round 1-1 lost to hof qb) NE (lost in 3rd round 2-1, lost to hof qb)
This is the first year you see SF win 2 games w/not a franchise qb, but that year he looked REALLY good and was playing like a potential franchise qb).
2012 top def Sea(lost in 2nd round 1-1) SF (lost in SB, 2-1) Chi(no playoffs) Den(lost in 2nd round 0-1) Atl (lost in 3rd round 1-1) Pitt(no playoffs) Mia(no playoffs) Cincy (lost in 1st round 0-1) Hou (Lost in 2nd round 1-1) NE (Lost in 3rd round (1-1)
**SB won by 12 best def w/pseudo franchise qb that is only franchise like in the playoffs**
Again you see SF/Hou win games w/out franchise qb's, but both played like they could be that year.
Long story short, teams win more b/c of qb's then def's; although top def's are necessary qb's more often then not determine playoff wins.
2016 NFL top def teams by ppg NE (SB winner, HoF qb possibly greatest of all time) NYG out in first round(0-1) Sea out in 2nd round(1-1) Den no playoffs Dal out in 2nd round(0-1) Min no playoffs KC out in 2nd round(0-1) Ciny no playoffs Balt no playoffs Pitt (out in 3rd round 2-1, lost to #1 def and HoF qb possibly greatest of all time)
All those great defs, and only 2 had more then 1 win, and all three that did win had franchise qb's.
2015 top def Sea(out in 2nd round 1-1) Cincy(out in 1st round 0-1) KC(out in 2nd round 1-1) Den(SB winner 3-0, hof qb, although on last leg) Minny(out in first round(0-1) Car(2-1 lost in sb) Ari(lost in 3rd round, 1-1) Hou lost in 1st round 0-1) NYJ( no playoffs) NE(Lost in 3rd round 1-1) Teams that one, again franchise qb's. And before you say Manning didn't make a difference, where was Den this year w/that great def w/no qb?
2014 top def Sea(3-1 lost to future hof qb) KC (no playoffs) Det (lost in first round 0-1) Buff (no playoffs) Ari (lost in first round 0-1) Balt (lost in 2nd round 1-1) Hou (no playoffs) NE (won sb w/future hof qb) Cle (no playoffs) SF (no playoffs)
only teams to win had franchise qb's
2013 top def Sea(won sb has franchise qb) Car (lost in 2nd round 0-1) SF (lost in 3rd round 2-1) NO (lost in 2nd round 1-1) Cincy (lost in first round 0-1) KC (lost in first round 0-1) Ari (no playoffs) Mia (no playoffs) Indy(lost in 2nd round 1-1 lost to hof qb) NE (lost in 3rd round 2-1, lost to hof qb)
This is the first year you see SF win 2 games w/not a franchise qb, but that year he looked REALLY good and was playing like a potential franchise qb).
2012 top def Sea(lost in 2nd round 1-1) SF (lost in SB, 2-1) Chi(no playoffs) Den(lost in 2nd round 0-1) Atl (lost in 3rd round 1-1) Pitt(no playoffs) Mia(no playoffs) Cincy (lost in 1st round 0-1) Hou (Lost in 2nd round 1-1) NE (Lost in 3rd round (1-1)
**SB won by 12 best def w/pseudo franchise qb that is only franchise like in the playoffs**
Again you see SF/Hou win games w/out franchise qb's, but both played like they could be that year.
Long story short, teams win more b/c of qb's then def's; although top def's are necessary qb's more often then not determine playoff wins.
Great post, but it will be ignored as usually by the "don't draft a QB we need more one more once in a generation elite game changing impose their will multiple AP/BP HOF defenders" club. Because everyone knows you can contend for and win multiple SBs with an average QB. I mean one of them even posted that finding an elite QB in the second round is 'easy.' Of course he also claimed that Hoyer was a better QB than Rogers, so....
2012 qb draft not looking at anything past 4 bc those are beyond flyers no one is expecti f anything from a 5th or later qb Rd 1 Luck hit Rgiii miss bc of inj Tanny mostly hit Weedon miss 2-4 Brock miss Ruswill hit Foles miss Capt kirk mostly hit 2013 1st Ej man miss 2-4 Geno miss Barkley miss Glennon ?? Prob miss Nassib miss Wilson miss Jones miss
2014 Bortles mixed Manziel miss Teddy bside hit
2-4 Carr hit Jimmy g unknown Thomas miss Savage miss
2015 Winston hit Mm hit 2-4 Grayson miss Manion miss Petty miss
2016 To soon to tell even w/dak he could be ruswill he could be keap