5 Moves Every NFC North Team Should Make...
Feb 16, 2017 7:35:43 GMT -6
riczaj01 and Whisky Beer Bob like this
Post by butkus3595 on Feb 16, 2017 7:35:43 GMT -6
Can't disagree with a lot of what this guy mentions in this article. If you want to see what he suggests for the other teams here's the link: www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/Barnwell5Moves2017NFCN/bill-barnwell-five-moves-nfc-north-team-make-2017-nfl-offseason
Chicago Bears
1. Release Jay Cutler. John Fox may not end up with a better option under center than his deposed incumbent, but it's fair to say Cutler has run his course in Chicago. The Bears don't need the cap space, but releasing Cutler will free up $14 million to go with the $58.9 million they already have available, pushing Chicago up near $73 million with few free agents of consequence. (The team could create another $10 million in space by releasing linebacker Lamarr Houston and receiver Eddie Royal.) It's possible the Bears could bring Brian Hoyer or Matt Barkley back as a backup quarterback, even after the latter's late-season spurt of interceptions, but they'll need to address the QB position in some way this offseason.
2. Franchise Alshon Jeffery. It's curious that the Bears haven't already locked Jeffery up to a long-term deal, but even after a disappointing 2016, there's little reason for the Bears to let Jeffery leave for free. They have no other free agents who would justify the tag. By virtue of being tagged for the second time, Jeffery's salary would rise to $17.5 million in 2017, which would make him the highest-paid wide receiver in football.
With loads of cap space, the Bears shouldn't let Alshon Jeffery hit the open market. Even if that seems excessive, think about that $73 million number I just mentioned. What are the Bears going to do with all that money? There's no way they can even come close to using all of it, and while they'll roll most of it over, Jeffery is a genuine asset. The Bears can use that tag as leverage for a palatable long-term contract or to create a trade market for their star receiver. I don't see a strong argument against the Bears franchising Jeffery for a second consecutive year.
3. Make a big move at quarterback. The Bears are better positioned than most to go after one of the more promising options at quarterback. Their defense started to improve last season under Fox and Vic Fangio, rising from 31st to 22nd in DVOA despite missing key players like Eddie Goldman and Danny Trevathan for chunks of the year. The injuries eventually hit in the second half, as Chicago fell from 16th in defensive DVOA to 30th over the final eight weeks of the season. Chicago also found a burgeoning running game with rookie Jordan Howard, who helped Bears fans forget about Matt Forte. The Bears were 1-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year and were the league's unluckiest team on special teams. They're closer than you think.
They also have the sort of offensive line that would be capable of protecting a talented quarterback, although they might be a left tackle away from truly ranking among the better lines in football. Chicago had the league's eighth-lowest sack rate (4.7 percent) and its sixth-lowest pressure rate (23.4 percent) in 2016. That's not a trick of the Bears' scheme, either: They threw their passes 8.7 yards in the air, which is well above league average, and they took 2.52 seconds to get the ball out, which is right above the league average of 2.50.
It's always dangerous for teams to go after a quarterback without having any support around him, given the worries about passers forming bad habits and suffering career-impacting injuries early on. The Bears have much of the infrastructure to support a quarterback, though, and given that Fox and Ryan Pace are entering their third year together at the helm with a 9-23 mark, they probably need to strike and show signs of improvement soon.
Which quarterback should they go after? It's too early to say. I would be skeptical of Mitch Trubisky and Deshaun Watson given the early scouting reports, but if the Bears have glowing reviews on one or the other, this would be the year to take one with the third overall pick. Sending the third overall pick to the Patriots for Jimmy Garoppolo would be too much, but the Bears could piece together an offer with the 36th selection and the extra fourth-round pick they got from the Bills in the Reggie Ragland trade.
Tony Romo would make less sense, and it's hard to imagine the Bears going after Colin Kaepernick after they watched his worst start of the season last year, but Tyrod Taylor would be feasible if he's cut by the Bills, as expected. Regardless of the specific passer, the Bears should take their shot at solving their quarterback conundrum this year.
4. Upgrade at cornerback. Chicago's other key position of need, as has been the case seemingly since Charles Tillman left town, is at corner. The Bears seem to have given up on 2014 first-rounder Kyle Fuller, with Fangio questioning his heart as Fuller missed the entire 2016 season with a knee injury. Bryce Callahan is a freak athlete and has shown some flashes of useful play, although he's far from a finished product and struggled with multiple injuries in 2016. Tracy Porter was often unfairly matched up against top wide receivers for most of the year. The Bears have work to do at corner.
If they don't use the third overall pick on a quarterback, they could consider Marshon Lattimore of Ohio State, who is seventh on Mel Kiper's Big Board. In free agency, they should be players for the corners at the top of the market. In a deep class, the Bears could have a shot at Trumaine Johnson, Sam Shields, Logan Ryan, Stephon Gilmore, Dre Kirkpatrick and A.J. Bouye. Coming away with at least one viable starting cornerback -- if not two -- is hugely important for a team that posted the league's eighth-best sack rate last year.
5. Upgrade at safety, too. Oh, we're not done in the defensive backfield. The Bears aren't much better at safety, which has hurt them when teams attack downfield. Chicago was 27th in DVOA against deep passes last year, while posting the league's 17th-best mark on shorter throws. The defense as a whole combined for just eight interceptions all year. Some of that traces back to the fact that the Bears faced the league's fourth-fewest passes, but they still need to find playmakers on defense.
There's a logical fit for the Bears at the third pick in LSU safety Jamal Adams, although the track record of safeties being taken at the top of the draft is mixed at best. One of the success stories is former fifth overall pick Eric Berry, who may also hit the free-agent market this year if the Chiefs can't come to terms with him on a contract extension. Berry would be pricey, but he represents the sort of all-world safety the Bears desperately need on the back end of their defense. Even less notable players like Micah Hyde or T.J. McDonald would represent an upgrade for Chicago.
Chicago Bears
1. Release Jay Cutler. John Fox may not end up with a better option under center than his deposed incumbent, but it's fair to say Cutler has run his course in Chicago. The Bears don't need the cap space, but releasing Cutler will free up $14 million to go with the $58.9 million they already have available, pushing Chicago up near $73 million with few free agents of consequence. (The team could create another $10 million in space by releasing linebacker Lamarr Houston and receiver Eddie Royal.) It's possible the Bears could bring Brian Hoyer or Matt Barkley back as a backup quarterback, even after the latter's late-season spurt of interceptions, but they'll need to address the QB position in some way this offseason.
2. Franchise Alshon Jeffery. It's curious that the Bears haven't already locked Jeffery up to a long-term deal, but even after a disappointing 2016, there's little reason for the Bears to let Jeffery leave for free. They have no other free agents who would justify the tag. By virtue of being tagged for the second time, Jeffery's salary would rise to $17.5 million in 2017, which would make him the highest-paid wide receiver in football.
With loads of cap space, the Bears shouldn't let Alshon Jeffery hit the open market. Even if that seems excessive, think about that $73 million number I just mentioned. What are the Bears going to do with all that money? There's no way they can even come close to using all of it, and while they'll roll most of it over, Jeffery is a genuine asset. The Bears can use that tag as leverage for a palatable long-term contract or to create a trade market for their star receiver. I don't see a strong argument against the Bears franchising Jeffery for a second consecutive year.
3. Make a big move at quarterback. The Bears are better positioned than most to go after one of the more promising options at quarterback. Their defense started to improve last season under Fox and Vic Fangio, rising from 31st to 22nd in DVOA despite missing key players like Eddie Goldman and Danny Trevathan for chunks of the year. The injuries eventually hit in the second half, as Chicago fell from 16th in defensive DVOA to 30th over the final eight weeks of the season. Chicago also found a burgeoning running game with rookie Jordan Howard, who helped Bears fans forget about Matt Forte. The Bears were 1-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year and were the league's unluckiest team on special teams. They're closer than you think.
They also have the sort of offensive line that would be capable of protecting a talented quarterback, although they might be a left tackle away from truly ranking among the better lines in football. Chicago had the league's eighth-lowest sack rate (4.7 percent) and its sixth-lowest pressure rate (23.4 percent) in 2016. That's not a trick of the Bears' scheme, either: They threw their passes 8.7 yards in the air, which is well above league average, and they took 2.52 seconds to get the ball out, which is right above the league average of 2.50.
It's always dangerous for teams to go after a quarterback without having any support around him, given the worries about passers forming bad habits and suffering career-impacting injuries early on. The Bears have much of the infrastructure to support a quarterback, though, and given that Fox and Ryan Pace are entering their third year together at the helm with a 9-23 mark, they probably need to strike and show signs of improvement soon.
Which quarterback should they go after? It's too early to say. I would be skeptical of Mitch Trubisky and Deshaun Watson given the early scouting reports, but if the Bears have glowing reviews on one or the other, this would be the year to take one with the third overall pick. Sending the third overall pick to the Patriots for Jimmy Garoppolo would be too much, but the Bears could piece together an offer with the 36th selection and the extra fourth-round pick they got from the Bills in the Reggie Ragland trade.
Tony Romo would make less sense, and it's hard to imagine the Bears going after Colin Kaepernick after they watched his worst start of the season last year, but Tyrod Taylor would be feasible if he's cut by the Bills, as expected. Regardless of the specific passer, the Bears should take their shot at solving their quarterback conundrum this year.
4. Upgrade at cornerback. Chicago's other key position of need, as has been the case seemingly since Charles Tillman left town, is at corner. The Bears seem to have given up on 2014 first-rounder Kyle Fuller, with Fangio questioning his heart as Fuller missed the entire 2016 season with a knee injury. Bryce Callahan is a freak athlete and has shown some flashes of useful play, although he's far from a finished product and struggled with multiple injuries in 2016. Tracy Porter was often unfairly matched up against top wide receivers for most of the year. The Bears have work to do at corner.
If they don't use the third overall pick on a quarterback, they could consider Marshon Lattimore of Ohio State, who is seventh on Mel Kiper's Big Board. In free agency, they should be players for the corners at the top of the market. In a deep class, the Bears could have a shot at Trumaine Johnson, Sam Shields, Logan Ryan, Stephon Gilmore, Dre Kirkpatrick and A.J. Bouye. Coming away with at least one viable starting cornerback -- if not two -- is hugely important for a team that posted the league's eighth-best sack rate last year.
5. Upgrade at safety, too. Oh, we're not done in the defensive backfield. The Bears aren't much better at safety, which has hurt them when teams attack downfield. Chicago was 27th in DVOA against deep passes last year, while posting the league's 17th-best mark on shorter throws. The defense as a whole combined for just eight interceptions all year. Some of that traces back to the fact that the Bears faced the league's fourth-fewest passes, but they still need to find playmakers on defense.
There's a logical fit for the Bears at the third pick in LSU safety Jamal Adams, although the track record of safeties being taken at the top of the draft is mixed at best. One of the success stories is former fifth overall pick Eric Berry, who may also hit the free-agent market this year if the Chiefs can't come to terms with him on a contract extension. Berry would be pricey, but he represents the sort of all-world safety the Bears desperately need on the back end of their defense. Even less notable players like Micah Hyde or T.J. McDonald would represent an upgrade for Chicago.