I didnt assume he would make 15 mil. I was guessing 5. leaving 10 mil, + 15mil is 25 mil, which is 2 mil in the red. Prince, Danny T and Gabriel dont make enough combined. a big dog will have go also. its not just Jackson, Floyd also and gonna have to get some FAs and the rookie pool. there will be a lot of changes to the roster the next few years, especially if Mitch turns out to be legit.
it is a good thing to have to worry aboit though, and it sets the team up for added picks in the future.
Getting way ahead of ourselves here but Duke Shelley has been getting a lot of props for his college tape, how he looked in OTAs, and as a sleeper/steal in the draft. It’s not unrealistic that he could be pushing Skrine by late in the season and taking over NB in 2020. Let’s remember that Callahan went completely undrafted and finding good nickel corners on day 3 of the draft isn’t all that uncommon.
If that pans out, maybe Pace can unload Skrine next offseason. Certainly he would be gone the season afterwards. Skrine’s contract, while not crazy, gets kinda expensive after this year.
We would lose 300k by removing Buster, so he's probably here next year. Callaghan wasn't a full time starter his 2nd year either. Need to let these kids play on the field.
But I tend to agree, in general you are going to see a much less experienced team next year(I say that b/c I don't think it'll be much younger, the teams pretty young as is.
Post by dachuckster on Jul 26, 2019 10:44:29 GMT -6
I think we are at the point where we need to see if Pace can keep up his ability to find contributors in rounds 3 - 7 in the draft as well as in UDFA.
If he has found three or four starters or significant contributors with guys like Shelley, Denmark, Bars, Mustipher, Hall, Raymond, Betts, Whyte, etc and does the same over the next two years, we will be OK.
But if he blows most of those picks, we are screwed.
If you look at the way the Pats do things to constantly reload it's awesome. Then there are the Redskins who have been the polar opposite for decades and it shows !
Getting way ahead of ourselves here but Duke Shelley has been getting a lot of props for his college tape, how he looked in OTAs, and as a sleeper/steal in the draft. It’s not unrealistic that he could be pushing Skrine by late in the season and taking over NB in 2020. Let’s remember that Callahan went completely undrafted and finding good nickel corners on day 3 of the draft isn’t all that uncommon.
If that pans out, maybe Pace can unload Skrine next offseason. Certainly he would be gone the season afterwards. Skrine’s contract, while not crazy, gets kinda expensive after this year.
We would lose 300k by removing Buster, so he's probably here next year. Callaghan wasn't a full time starter his 2nd year either. Need to let these kids play on the field.
But I tend to agree, in general you are going to see a much less experienced team next year(I say that b/c I don't think it'll be much younger, the teams pretty young as is.
The "out" in Skrine's contract doesn't come until after 2020 season as you stated. If, definitely an "IF" but if, Shelley pans out, Pace could look to trade Skrine next offseason. Wouldn't get much for him, maybe a 7th, but more as a means of unloading his contract to team needy of vet secondary help.
The following is more about our future cap issues and less about a specific player (Jackson, Mack, Trubisky, etc). But it is relevant to any current large or future large contract for the Bears.
Since we are already in the 2019 league year, I will talk about 2020 and 2021 exclusively. As the current CBA expires after the 2010 league year, I don't think it is productive to go into anything relating to the cap for 2022 or beyond as the rules will change (and likely change significantly IMO).
Here are several possible (probable??) cap casualties for 2020. All data from OverTheCap. The "mm" stands for millions of $.
Player
Guaranteed $$
Dead Money
Cap Savings
Allen Robinson
$0
$2mm
$13mm
Kyle Long
$0
$1.5mm
$8.1mm
Prince Amukamara
$0
$1mm
$8mm
Taylor Gabriel
$0
$2mm
$4.5mm
Cordarrelle Patterson
$0
$0.5mm
$5.25mm
I am not arguing that we should cut the above players in 2020, either all or as an individual. With the exception of Patterson, they all have performed well for us (not being critical of Patterson) but these 5 represent the highest return. If we release them all, we get a total cap savings of $39,850,000 and a total of $7,000,000 in dead money. Assuming a cap increase on something in the $10mm - $15mm range we would have a net cap spend amount of $35mm to $40mm.
But to do this and not lose our ability to compete, we need to see 2 or 3 of our current WRs really step up big time as well as 2 of our current CBs.
Here are potential cap casualties on 2021. Again I am not advocating cutting a specific player. Just talking about who could be released for a maximum of savings.
Player
Guaranteed $$
Dead Money
Cap Savings
Kyle Fuller
$0
$4.5mm
$14mm
Charles Leno
$0
$0.9mm
$9mm
Bobby Massie
$0
$3.9mm
$5.4mm
Trey Burton
$0
$1.75mm
$7.1mm
Assuming we release Gabriel prior to the 2020 season, we would start out with $6.5mm of cap space and incur $11.05mm of dead money and get $35.5mm in cap savings. That with the 2020 and 2021 assumed cap increases would mean a total free cap spend amount $55mm to something like $62mm.
Again this means we need new players or existing players to take positions and perform at a pretty high level. I have no idea if we will be in a position to replace both OTs or our starting TE or our best CB.
But we will have several players coming off rookie contracts over the next 2 or 3 years and if we want to sign all of them we will need to make some very hard decisions. Like if we want to sign Jackson to a huge contract (and if he keeps playing at this level he will be worth it), does that mean we let Kyle Fuller go?
The following is more about our future cap issues and less about a specific player (Jackson, Mack, Trubisky, etc). But it is relevant to any current large or future large contract for the Bears.
Since we are already in the 2019 league year, I will talk about 2020 and 2021 exclusively. As the current CBA expires after the 2010 league year, I don't think it is productive to go into anything relating to the cap for 2022 or beyond as the rules will change (and likely change significantly IMO).
Here are several possible (probable??) cap casualties for 2020. All data from OverTheCap. The "mm" stands for millions of $.
Player
Guaranteed $$
Dead Money
Cap Savings
Allen Robinson
$0
$2mm
$13mm
Kyle Long
$0
$1.5mm
$8.1mm
Prince Amukamara
$0
$1mm
$8mm
Taylor Gabriel
$0
$2mm
$4.5mm
Cordarrelle Patterson
$0
$0.5mm
$5.25mm
I am not arguing that we should cut the above players in 2020, either all or as an individual. With the exception of Patterson, they all have performed well for us (not being critical of Patterson) but these 5 represent the highest return. If we release them all, we get a total cap savings of $39,850,000 and a total of $7,000,000 in dead money. Assuming a cap increase on something in the $10mm - $15mm range we would have a net cap spend amount of $35mm to $40mm.
But to do this and not lose our ability to compete, we need to see 2 or 3 of our current WRs really step up big time as well as 2 of our current CBs.
Here are potential cap casualties on 2021. Again I am not advocating cutting a specific player. Just talking about who could be released for a maximum of savings.
Player
Guaranteed $$
Dead Money
Cap Savings
Kyle Fuller
$0
$4.5mm
$14mm
Charles Leno
$0
$0.9mm
$9mm
Bobby Massie
$0
$3.9mm
$5.4mm
Trey Burton
$0
$1.75mm
$7.1mm
Assuming we release Gabriel prior to the 2020 season, we would start out with $6.5mm of cap space and incur $11.05mm of dead money and get $35.5mm in cap savings. That with the 2020 and 2021 assumed cap increases would mean a total free cap spend amount $55mm to something like $62mm.
Again this means we need new players or existing players to take positions and perform at a pretty high level. I have no idea if we will be in a position to replace both OTs or our starting TE or our best CB.
But we will have several players coming off rookie contracts over the next 2 or 3 years and if we want to sign all of them we will need to make some very hard decisions. Like if we want to sign Jackson to a huge contract (and if he keeps playing at this level he will be worth it), does that mean we let Kyle Fuller go?
Nice job! I would say Gabriel is a release candidate, and based off what our receivers have been doing in camp I feel pretty confident with that. There's also ways to structure contracts to have them count more in some years than others. We'll see how it all turns out, but I wouldn't take anything back because I love where this team is right now.
Post by dachuckster on Aug 2, 2019 14:51:41 GMT -6
I think that Robinson and Long are the two likeliest release candidates. Looking on Twitter for the fan's cell phone videos from camp, Wims and Miller both look like they are ready to have absolutely breakout years in 2019. If that is true and the recent OL additions work out, we could get close to $22mm pretty quickly from those two. And if Toliver and Shelly work out as well, Prince could be on the outside looking in.
Personally I think 2020 is the critical cap year for us and once we get to 2021 we are actually in better shape.
Jackson is looking at around 14 15mil a year, 70-80 mil contract based on the top safeties currently.
more then TGab will need to be cut, bc more then Jackson will need to be signed, not to mention rookies.
I see four real priority negotiations/signings coming up. Floyd and Whitehair at the end of this season and Jackson and Trubisky at the end of the 2020 season.
We have other guys coming up soon but I don't think they will be too difficult. Bullard , McManis, Sowell, Bush, Robertson-Harris and Houston-Carson all at the end of this season. Cohen, Tolliver, Braunecker and Shaheen at the end of 2020.