OK, brutally honest question for the board to ponder. Are you going to be massively disappointed if Trub does not hit on 100% of his potential and becomes that All-Pro franchise QB that will earn 35-40M in years 6-10 of his career with us? I am not and I will tell you why. If he can become an above average QB in years 3-5 (and hopefully well on his way before hear 2 which is now) and just master the basics and then a little more I will be more than happy. I say this because the learning curve is steep and I am not really enamoured with the idea of us having our version of AR version II. Just an intelligent, system functioning QB who plays well and runs the O well enough to score 24-28 points is all I really wish for. The rest is pie in the sky. I figure our window will be until the end of the CBA period in 2020 due to the unknown nature of the game and how all this will shake out. And most importantly with our presnt D that is all you really need.
OK, brutally honest question for the board to ponder. Are you going to be massively disappointed if Trub does not hit on 100% of his potential and becomes that All-Pro franchise QB that will earn 35-40M in years 6-10 of his career with us? I am not and I will tell you why. If he can become an above average QB in years 3-5 (and hopefully well on his way before hear 2 which is now) and just master the basics and then a little more I will be more than happy. I say this because the learning curve is steep and I am not really enamoured with the idea of us having our version of AR version II. Just an intelligent, system functioning QB who plays well and runs the O well enough to score 24-28 points is all I really wish for. The rest is pie in the sky. I figure our window will be until the end of the CBA period in 2020 due to the unknown nature of the game and how all this will shake out. And most importantly with our presnt D that is all you really need.
Yes I will be, but on the other hand, if he ends up average...Alex Smith level, I'll be ok with that, but I'll always ask why he never was able to take that next step up.
The problem with being average is when do you take a chance to improve the position? Think Jags with Bortles. If they could improve at WB would they? Or is it better to keep feeding the DEF and hoping Bortles levels out at average and stays there? Chiefs took a chance with Mahomes over Smith and so far so good.
OK, brutally honest question for the board to ponder. Are you going to be massively disappointed if Trub does not hit on 100% of his potential and becomes that All-Pro franchise QB that will earn 35-40M in years 6-10 of his career with us? I am not and I will tell you why. If he can become an above average QB in years 3-5 (and hopefully well on his way before hear 2 which is now) and just master the basics and then a little more I will be more than happy. I say this because the learning curve is steep and I am not really enamoured with the idea of us having our version of AR version II. Just an intelligent, system functioning QB who plays well and runs the O well enough to score 24-28 points is all I really wish for. The rest is pie in the sky. I figure our window will be until the end of the CBA period in 2020 due to the unknown nature of the game and how all this will shake out. And most importantly with our presnt D that is all you really need.
If he does end up a decent QB for us, I'll be pleased. I'm going to be a happy camper if he is ultimately in that 2nd tier group which is still a group of excellent QBs. If he's in a lower tier (bottom half of the league), I'm going to be disappointed.
I keep thinking that even if he takes a bit to begin looking like a decent NFL quarterback, that's okay, when you consider QBs can have excellent careers well into their mid-30s and sometimes even longer. So it's a long-term investment here.
He's almost an entire 16 games into his career. He's got a passer rating of 77.6 with 9 TDs and 10 ints.
Post by tragicslip on Sept 24, 2018 15:31:15 GMT -6
He's not just a one read qb. he was a lot yesterday thanks to some clever blitzing on the part of the cards. btw, it's not all on Trib if someone fails to adjust a route to account for a blitz. Mitch's worst game of the season and a win. Nice to see the Bears capable of putting up 16 unanswered points after giving up 14.
Post by dachuckster on Sept 24, 2018 15:41:28 GMT -6
I just posted on the other development thread that Nagy thinks he has been pushing too much stuff on to Trubisky. So we may see the game plan shortened a little bit next week.
The question is why should it take this long to reach his potential? If Mitch was a mid or late round prospect I would agree w/ you guys, give him time to practice and learn the playbook and let him figure it out. But we're talking about a first rd pick, and not just any first rd pick. First QB taken, 2nd pick overall, we even traded UP for him.
I don't care how complex Nagy's system is, it's not unreasonable to expect a certain level of play from a 2nd pick overall. We gave him everything a QB could only dream of - great receiving corps, decent OL, one of the best running games in the league, a young offensive minded QB guru HC who was taught by one of the most well respected offensive minds in the league. Now is not the time to let us down.
And I know, we should all be patient because Mahomes needed more than a year to learn Reid's playbook yadda yadda yadda. All this talk about being patient made me think of someone else: Jared Goff.
Back in 2016 he was in the exact same situation as Trubisky last season. Stuck w/ a mediocre defensive minded HC who didn't know anything about offense, overrated OC, almost no offensive weapons except a great running game. Sound familiar? So I went and looked up Goff's 2016 and Mitch's 2017 numbers.
Mitch (12 games) / Goff (7 games)
2193YDS / 1089 YDS
183 YPG / 156 YPG
59.4 PCT / 54.6 PCT
0.58 TDPG / 0.71 TDPG
0.58 INTPG / 1 INTPG
77.5 RAT / 63.6 RAT
As you can see, Mitch was clearly the better QB. Then came Sean McVay, installed a whole new system and got him better receivers. You really think Goff needed an entire year to learn everything in order to reach his full potential? Nope.
In the first three games of the 2017 season, Goff threw for 817 YDS, 5 TDs, just one pick, no fumbles, had a 69.8 completion PCT and a 116.3 RAT.
Now let's compare this to Mitch's first three games in Nagy's new system: 591 YDS, 2 TDs, 3 INT, 2 fumbles, 69.2 PCT and 77.9 RAT.
Again, I don't wanna be a downer but this whole "let's give him a year and a half to be good" talk needs to stop. We should expect A LOT more from Mitch.
He's the future and basically one of the two faces of this franchise (Mack being the other) but he really needs to start playing like one. We have been patient enough imo.
Thing is, its hard to disagree with Grizz here. I'm preaching patience, but I 100% see Grizz's point. Drafted second, play like it. Show me somethings, anything, even improvement, but it has to be measurable. I posted this before, but he looks like Grossman. Capable of a good play but then something that makes you want to throw things at the screen.
Plus, most drafted QBs don't pan out. Simple fact. Sigh.
Here's the problem w/his comp. Goff started 3 years in college w/1568+ attempts. Mitch started 1 year passing for a total of 386 in 3 years. So Goff had learned the position of qb in college, and then got to learn the nfl in 7 games, then got to learn a new system w/a new set of targets. They have also lowered Goffs attempts per game each season, from 33, to 31 to 29. That's hardly them putting the game in his hands; meanwhile Gurley's touches are going up, 17-18 and now 20, This year the Rams passing attempts 101, rushing attempts 94. That's about 33 passing a game to 31 rushing(51% pass to 49% rush). Right now Goff is getting the Big Ben treatment from his first several years.
Mitch is learning the qb positon, this is his 3rd year starting(college and pro's) while also learning a new system and new targets. And he's gone from 27 attempts to 34 attempts per game, while Howards touches have remained flat(sadly he's gone from 16, to 17 and has stayed at 17 rushes). The Bears have 34 passes per game to 28(55 pass % to 45 rush %) rushes. Mitch is getting thrown into the deep end while Goff is getting more and more protected.
McVay also runs a WCO, w/more deep routes. Not sure what they were running in 2016, but I doubt it was that different then as Groh was involved w/The Bears during that era, and he was involved in helping the Rams develop their offense in 2016. So Goff essentially had already learned at least some aspects of the WCO in 2016 also.
Anyone honestly think Mitch learned anything from Loggains/Fox that resemebled what the Bears are asking him to run now?
Not that I think he will be Drew Brees(although think about who was in NO's before he was the Bears GM) but I do want to point out that Brees's light didn't really turn on until his 3rd year, and didn't become Drew Brees until year 4.
Think SD and their fans are happy they gave up on Brees 1 year to late(his 3rd year when they drafted Rivers)? They shoudn't be b/c they were never closer to getting to a SB then they were at the end of that 3rd year w/Brees; before he got hurt.
Thing is, its hard to disagree with Grizz here. I'm preaching patience, but I 100% see Grizz's point. Drafted second, play like it. Show me somethings, anything, even improvement, but it has to be measurable. I posted this before, but he looks like Grossman. Capable of a good play but then something that makes you want to throw things at the screen.
Plus, most drafted QBs don't pan out. Simple fact. Sigh.
Here's the problem w/his comp. Goff started 3 years in college w/1568+ attempts. Mitch started 1 year passing for a total of 386 in 3 years. So Goff had learned the position of qb in college, and then got to learn the nfl in 7 games, then got to learn a new system w/a new set of targets. They have also lowered Goffs attempts per game each season, from 33, to 31 to 29. That's hardly them putting the game in his hands; meanwhile Gurley's touches are going up, 17-18 and now 20, This year the Rams passing attempts 101, rushing attempts 94. That's about 33 passing a game to 31 rushing(51% pass to 49% rush). Right now Goff is getting the Big Ben treatment from his first several years.
Mitch is learning the qb positon, this is his 3rd year starting(college and pro's) while also learning a new system and new targets. And he's gone from 27 attempts to 34 attempts per game, while Howards touches have remained flat(sadly he's gone from 16, to 17 and has stayed at 17 rushes). The Bears have 34 passes per game to 28(55 pass % to 45 rush %) rushes. Mitch is getting thrown into the deep end while Goff is getting more and more protected.
McVay also runs a WCO, w/more deep routes. Not sure what they were running in 2016, but I doubt it was that different then as Groh was involved w/The Bears during that era, and he was involved in helping the Rams develop their offense in 2016. So Goff essentially had already learned at least some aspects of the WCO in 2016 also.
Anyone honestly think Mitch learned anything from Loggains/Fox that resemebled what the Bears are asking him to run now?
And your post is the other side of the coin. No matter where he was drafted, Mitch is unexperienced. He had 13 games in college and then 12 games under Fox/Loggains where basically he wasn't allowed to take any chances. IMO he's still shell shocked from that experience. Nothing Fox/Loggains game planned is anywhere near to what Nagy wants him to run.
So in my mind it fair to point out that as a second pick he should be performing better and also to admit he still has a long ways to go. They can both be true.
I'm less impressed with Nagy than I was before. There are some game planning things I don't like (Not expecting the Pack to go to a zone DEF and not dialing up plays to deal with the single deep safety and pressure off the edge that the Cards did. I need to look at the first sack again--the one where he stumbled backwards--but one of the announcers (I think I heard correctly) said there was no hot read WR on that play call. What? How? No wonder Mitch panicked. He knew pressure was coming and also knew he had no where to go with the ball. That's on Nagy.
Here's the problem w/his comp. Goff started 3 years in college w/1568+ attempts. Mitch started 1 year passing for a total of 386 in 3 years. So Goff had learned the position of qb in college, and then got to learn the nfl in 7 games, then got to learn a new system w/a new set of targets. They have also lowered Goffs attempts per game each season, from 33, to 31 to 29. That's hardly them putting the game in his hands; meanwhile Gurley's touches are going up, 17-18 and now 20, This year the Rams passing attempts 101, rushing attempts 94. That's about 33 passing a game to 31 rushing(51% pass to 49% rush). Right now Goff is getting the Big Ben treatment from his first several years.
Mitch is learning the qb positon, this is his 3rd year starting(college and pro's) while also learning a new system and new targets. And he's gone from 27 attempts to 34 attempts per game, while Howards touches have remained flat(sadly he's gone from 16, to 17 and has stayed at 17 rushes). The Bears have 34 passes per game to 28(55 pass % to 45 rush %) rushes. Mitch is getting thrown into the deep end while Goff is getting more and more protected.
McVay also runs a WCO, w/more deep routes. Not sure what they were running in 2016, but I doubt it was that different then as Groh was involved w/The Bears during that era, and he was involved in helping the Rams develop their offense in 2016. So Goff essentially had already learned at least some aspects of the WCO in 2016 also.
Anyone honestly think Mitch learned anything from Loggains/Fox that resemebled what the Bears are asking him to run now?
And your post is the other side of the coin. No matter where he was drafted, Mitch is unexperienced. He had 13 games in college and then 12 games under Fox/Loggains where basically he wasn't allowed to take any chances. IMO he's still shell shocked from that experience. Nothing Fox/Loggains game planned is anywhere near to what Nagy wants him to run.
So in my mind it fair to point out that as a second pick he should be performing better and also to admit he still has a long ways to go. They can both be true.
I'm less impressed with Nagy than I was before. There are some game planning things I don't like (Not expecting the Pack to go to a zone DEF and not dialing up plays to deal with the single deep safety and pressure off the edge that the Cards did. I need to look at the first sack again--the one where he stumbled backwards--but one of the announcers (I think I heard correctly) said there was no hot read WR on that play call. What? How? No wonder Mitch panicked. He knew pressure was coming and also knew he had no where to go with the ball. That's on Nagy.
and that's why he shouldn't have been the 2nd pick in the draft. and you cannot hold him to those expectations bc hos experience says he cannot be that far along no matter where he got drafted.
this is a kid that is going to take into 3 years to start to get it, if he gets it at all.
Here's the problem w/his comp. Goff started 3 years in college w/1568+ attempts. Mitch started 1 year passing for a total of 386 in 3 years. So Goff had learned the position of qb in college, and then got to learn the nfl in 7 games, then got to learn a new system w/a new set of targets. They have also lowered Goffs attempts per game each season, from 33, to 31 to 29. That's hardly them putting the game in his hands; meanwhile Gurley's touches are going up, 17-18 and now 20, This year the Rams passing attempts 101, rushing attempts 94. That's about 33 passing a game to 31 rushing(51% pass to 49% rush). Right now Goff is getting the Big Ben treatment from his first several years.
Mitch is learning the qb positon, this is his 3rd year starting(college and pro's) while also learning a new system and new targets. And he's gone from 27 attempts to 34 attempts per game, while Howards touches have remained flat(sadly he's gone from 16, to 17 and has stayed at 17 rushes). The Bears have 34 passes per game to 28(55 pass % to 45 rush %) rushes. Mitch is getting thrown into the deep end while Goff is getting more and more protected.
McVay also runs a WCO, w/more deep routes. Not sure what they were running in 2016, but I doubt it was that different then as Groh was involved w/The Bears during that era, and he was involved in helping the Rams develop their offense in 2016. So Goff essentially had already learned at least some aspects of the WCO in 2016 also.
Anyone honestly think Mitch learned anything from Loggains/Fox that resemebled what the Bears are asking him to run now?
And your post is the other side of the coin. No matter where he was drafted, Mitch is unexperienced. He had 13 games in college and then 12 games under Fox/Loggains where basically he wasn't allowed to take any chances. IMO he's still shell shocked from that experience. Nothing Fox/Loggains game planned is anywhere near to what Nagy wants him to run.
So in my mind it fair to point out that as a second pick he should be performing better and also to admit he still has a long ways to go. They can both be true.
I'm less impressed with Nagy than I was before. There are some game planning things I don't like (Not expecting the Pack to go to a zone DEF and not dialing up plays to deal with the single deep safety and pressure off the edge that the Cards did. I need to look at the first sack again--the one where he stumbled backwards--but one of the announcers (I think I heard correctly) said there was no hot read WR on that play call. What? How? No wonder Mitch panicked. He knew pressure was coming and also knew he had no where to go with the ball. That's on Nagy.
Watch it again--I'm pretty sure Cohen was wide open in the left flat as the hot read. It was a jailbreak rush so quite possible MT didn't see him or couldn't get the ball there safely. Stuff like that, such as not reading/anticipating the D and making quick adjustments, doesn't bother me too much at this point. That's advanced level NFL quarterbacking which I wouldn't expect an inexperienced guy in a new O to have down pat at this point.
What bothers me way more are the plays he hasn't made when he's had opportunities. I re-watched the condensed game today on Game Pass. MT hit 2-3 beautiful downfield throws but the rest were pretty much clunkers. He had roughly 3 plays where he flat out missed open targets that all would have been TDs or big gains. He had 2-3 other throws that were plain ill-advised as the target wasn't open at all and was usually double-covered. He easily could have had 3 picks instead of just 1.
We saw the same thing in weeks 1 and 2 as well. Let's be honest here--if he hits 2 out of the 3 big opportunities he's had in each game, we are probably popping champagne corks and not worrying all that much about the rest of his game being raw and "on training wheels". If he can just make those plays consistently, with this defense, the Bears are going to beat a lot of teams this year. I'll worry about the higher-level processing stuff later on. Just stop missing on passes that we all know he can make!