Wiederer vs Campbell Point/Counterpoint on Bears Season.....
Sept 6, 2016 23:14:33 GMT -6
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2016 23:14:33 GMT -6
Real Talk: Is the glass really half-full for the 2016 Bears?
Dan Wiederer and Rich Campbell Contact Reporters Chicago Tribune
The regular season is here. Finally.
After a taxing six weeks, the Chicago Bears have solidified a 53-man roster and shifted their focus to Sunday's season opener against the Houston Texans.
On the early lines, the Bears are six-point road underdogs. And oddsmakers still see John Fox's team well outside the NFL playoff picture. With an over-under win total of 7 1/2, they're projected to remain in the bottom half of the NFC for a third straight season.
Furthermore, the team's lackluster preseason showing did little to enliven any new hope around Chicago.
But things can't be entirely bleak, can they? There have to be signs of promise somewhere, right?
In the regular-season debut of Real Talk, Dan Wiederer and Rich Campbell take an optimistic approach discussing how the Bears' 2016 season would become a best-case scenario.
Dan Wiederer: Disclaimer: I still see this as a six- or seven-win team with a nine-win ceiling. I've been on record with that for a while and see little reason to change.
So much for the unwavering optimism, huh?
But I will at least acknowledge that promise exists within this group, even if much of it is not yet at surface level.
For as low as this team is right now on established difference-makers, the cast of young studs with the potential to break through this fall is intriguing. You can start with top-10 picks Kevin White and Leonard Floyd and continue right down the list with Eddie Goldman, Jeremy Langford, Jonathan Bullard, Cody Whitehair, Adrian Amos and Harold Jones-Quartey.
All of those players are talented. All of those players are driven and humble. All of those players are shy of their 25th birthdays.
Best-case scenario No. 1: A well-respected coaching staff gets full buy-in from all the young talent and triggers an earlier-than-expected growth spurt.
Rich Campbell: I continue to be very skeptical about the Bears reaching that best-case scenario. I predicted 6-10 for our season preview section (at newsstands Friday!), and I'm sticking with that. We've seen the offense sputter so much throughout exhibition games and, perhaps more importantly, weeks of practice. I need to see the operation function better to change my outlook. This team lacks depth and has a threatening season-long injury concern about Pro Bowl right guard Kyle Long. And to your point about the young talent, with youth comes inconsistency.
But I'm going to try really hard here to put my pessimist hat away and stomach the Kool-Aid. There are elements of this roster that can push it forward. The defensive front seven appears improved against the run, as advertised. Akiem Hicks, Danny Trevathan, Jerrell Freeman and, as you mentioned, Goldman, appear capable of sharpening the defense's edge — something they haven't had in years.
Wiederer: There you go again, Mr. Negative. This exercise is about seeing the rainbow not all the ominous storm clouds. So maybe I can get you off your pessimistic slant for a minute.
Have you looked at the opposing quarterbacks the Bears will face in September? Brock Osweiler, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott. Hardly a murderer's row there. So maybe that's a window of opportunity for a growing defense to build confidence, to create takeaways, to alleviate some pressure off that work-in-progress offense. A 2-1 start is not a ridiculous possibility. Then, all of a sudden, maybe the momentum and belief starts escalating.
Campbell: Ahem, I prefer Mr. Realistic. But let me put my navy-and-orange glasses on here and play along.
You mentioned takeaways, and certainly the defense needs to force more than the franchise-record-low 14 it did last season. Even though the pass rush has much to prove, especially without Pernell McPhee, we've seen indicators that the defense, particularly the secondary, is capable of making plays on the ball.
In practices, a number of defensive backs turned tipped passes into picks. Bryce Callahan made a terrific read in the first exhibition game to tip a pass and set up Freeman's interception. Tracy Porter yanked the ball out of a runner's grasp in the Patriots game, and Goldman hustled to force a fumble against the Chiefs. The arrow in that department is pointed up.
Wiederer: Let's not forget the two biggest personnel moves of the weekend — the addition of guard Josh Sitton and the Connor Barth-for-Robbie Gould kicker swap. And with a best-case scenario slant, maybe this means Sitton retains his Pro Bowl-level production and learns the offensive system fast enough to be a major difference-maker in September. Maybe his presence also sparks Whitehair's ascent as Ryan Pace is hoping it will. And maybe Long's left shoulder injury doesn't hinder his play all that much. Voila! Just like that, the Bears might be able to boast one of the best interior line trios in the entire league.
And while we're sticking with best-case scenarios, maybe Barth is flawless from 40 yards and in this season and makes a couple more in-the-clutch kicks than Gould was able to convert a year ago. All of a sudden, maybe it all translates into a surprising hot streak.
Campbell: Wow, that would be some kind of lottery ticket. Tell the Tooth Fairy I said hello, would ya?
I do think Sitton will help solidify the pocket. Even if it takes a month or two for Whitehair and him to settle into their new spots, the offensive line should be more functional than what the Bears were facing before the Packers released the three-time Pro Bowler.
It's going to help the running game, and I think we've seen how Langford might thrive in this zone scheme. It helps him get into space, where his vision and sharp footwork flashed during exhibition games. If the Bears can run the ball, they can win.
Wiederer: See? Isn't this Kool-Aid tasty? And a little bit intoxicating? And we haven't even gotten to the renowned "John Fox Year 2 Bounce" yet.
OK. So I'll slow my roll there. I'm not about to project a four- or five-win uptick for this Fox club. But I will at least acknowledge the culture he's established and the plan he's stuck to in building around smart, tough, resilient players. We've been around the team a lot the past four months. And I think character matters for a young team like this. To this point, there have been few (if any) distractions and no indications that the locker room will at some point be threatened by divisive, me-first personalities.
When cohesion significantly outweighs drama, it can be amazing to watch the positive energy spread.
Campbell: That's a valid point, and I'm eager to see how the chemistry holds once a few losses accumulate. Most specifically, how Jay Cutler handles some of the inevitable growing pains on offense.
Last year, Fox and his staff demonstrated an ability to game plan and squeeze the most out of each weekly matchup. The Bears tried to shorten games to protect their defense and lessen the burden on Cutler. This year, the defense might not need to be shielded as much. I can't say the same for Cutler until the new running back committee proves itself, but the front seven should help the equation.
Wiederer: So yeah. A lot needs to go right for these Bears to become a surprise playoff contender. But until thing start going wrong, I'm willing to offer the benefit of the doubt as an asterisk on my 7-9 projection. Let's get the real games started and see what shakes out.
Campbell: I'm taking the opposite approach: skepticism until this last-place team proves it deserves the benefit of the doubt. But I do think it's important for us to recognize the range of possibilities and keep an open mind. As Fox says, it's not how you start, it's how you finish. In another building season like this one, let's remember that.
dwiederer@chicagotribune.com
rcampbell@chicagotribune.com
Dan Wiederer and Rich Campbell Contact Reporters Chicago Tribune
The regular season is here. Finally.
After a taxing six weeks, the Chicago Bears have solidified a 53-man roster and shifted their focus to Sunday's season opener against the Houston Texans.
On the early lines, the Bears are six-point road underdogs. And oddsmakers still see John Fox's team well outside the NFL playoff picture. With an over-under win total of 7 1/2, they're projected to remain in the bottom half of the NFC for a third straight season.
Furthermore, the team's lackluster preseason showing did little to enliven any new hope around Chicago.
But things can't be entirely bleak, can they? There have to be signs of promise somewhere, right?
In the regular-season debut of Real Talk, Dan Wiederer and Rich Campbell take an optimistic approach discussing how the Bears' 2016 season would become a best-case scenario.
Dan Wiederer: Disclaimer: I still see this as a six- or seven-win team with a nine-win ceiling. I've been on record with that for a while and see little reason to change.
So much for the unwavering optimism, huh?
But I will at least acknowledge that promise exists within this group, even if much of it is not yet at surface level.
For as low as this team is right now on established difference-makers, the cast of young studs with the potential to break through this fall is intriguing. You can start with top-10 picks Kevin White and Leonard Floyd and continue right down the list with Eddie Goldman, Jeremy Langford, Jonathan Bullard, Cody Whitehair, Adrian Amos and Harold Jones-Quartey.
All of those players are talented. All of those players are driven and humble. All of those players are shy of their 25th birthdays.
Best-case scenario No. 1: A well-respected coaching staff gets full buy-in from all the young talent and triggers an earlier-than-expected growth spurt.
Rich Campbell: I continue to be very skeptical about the Bears reaching that best-case scenario. I predicted 6-10 for our season preview section (at newsstands Friday!), and I'm sticking with that. We've seen the offense sputter so much throughout exhibition games and, perhaps more importantly, weeks of practice. I need to see the operation function better to change my outlook. This team lacks depth and has a threatening season-long injury concern about Pro Bowl right guard Kyle Long. And to your point about the young talent, with youth comes inconsistency.
But I'm going to try really hard here to put my pessimist hat away and stomach the Kool-Aid. There are elements of this roster that can push it forward. The defensive front seven appears improved against the run, as advertised. Akiem Hicks, Danny Trevathan, Jerrell Freeman and, as you mentioned, Goldman, appear capable of sharpening the defense's edge — something they haven't had in years.
Wiederer: There you go again, Mr. Negative. This exercise is about seeing the rainbow not all the ominous storm clouds. So maybe I can get you off your pessimistic slant for a minute.
Have you looked at the opposing quarterbacks the Bears will face in September? Brock Osweiler, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott. Hardly a murderer's row there. So maybe that's a window of opportunity for a growing defense to build confidence, to create takeaways, to alleviate some pressure off that work-in-progress offense. A 2-1 start is not a ridiculous possibility. Then, all of a sudden, maybe the momentum and belief starts escalating.
Campbell: Ahem, I prefer Mr. Realistic. But let me put my navy-and-orange glasses on here and play along.
You mentioned takeaways, and certainly the defense needs to force more than the franchise-record-low 14 it did last season. Even though the pass rush has much to prove, especially without Pernell McPhee, we've seen indicators that the defense, particularly the secondary, is capable of making plays on the ball.
In practices, a number of defensive backs turned tipped passes into picks. Bryce Callahan made a terrific read in the first exhibition game to tip a pass and set up Freeman's interception. Tracy Porter yanked the ball out of a runner's grasp in the Patriots game, and Goldman hustled to force a fumble against the Chiefs. The arrow in that department is pointed up.
Wiederer: Let's not forget the two biggest personnel moves of the weekend — the addition of guard Josh Sitton and the Connor Barth-for-Robbie Gould kicker swap. And with a best-case scenario slant, maybe this means Sitton retains his Pro Bowl-level production and learns the offensive system fast enough to be a major difference-maker in September. Maybe his presence also sparks Whitehair's ascent as Ryan Pace is hoping it will. And maybe Long's left shoulder injury doesn't hinder his play all that much. Voila! Just like that, the Bears might be able to boast one of the best interior line trios in the entire league.
And while we're sticking with best-case scenarios, maybe Barth is flawless from 40 yards and in this season and makes a couple more in-the-clutch kicks than Gould was able to convert a year ago. All of a sudden, maybe it all translates into a surprising hot streak.
Campbell: Wow, that would be some kind of lottery ticket. Tell the Tooth Fairy I said hello, would ya?
I do think Sitton will help solidify the pocket. Even if it takes a month or two for Whitehair and him to settle into their new spots, the offensive line should be more functional than what the Bears were facing before the Packers released the three-time Pro Bowler.
It's going to help the running game, and I think we've seen how Langford might thrive in this zone scheme. It helps him get into space, where his vision and sharp footwork flashed during exhibition games. If the Bears can run the ball, they can win.
Wiederer: See? Isn't this Kool-Aid tasty? And a little bit intoxicating? And we haven't even gotten to the renowned "John Fox Year 2 Bounce" yet.
OK. So I'll slow my roll there. I'm not about to project a four- or five-win uptick for this Fox club. But I will at least acknowledge the culture he's established and the plan he's stuck to in building around smart, tough, resilient players. We've been around the team a lot the past four months. And I think character matters for a young team like this. To this point, there have been few (if any) distractions and no indications that the locker room will at some point be threatened by divisive, me-first personalities.
When cohesion significantly outweighs drama, it can be amazing to watch the positive energy spread.
Campbell: That's a valid point, and I'm eager to see how the chemistry holds once a few losses accumulate. Most specifically, how Jay Cutler handles some of the inevitable growing pains on offense.
Last year, Fox and his staff demonstrated an ability to game plan and squeeze the most out of each weekly matchup. The Bears tried to shorten games to protect their defense and lessen the burden on Cutler. This year, the defense might not need to be shielded as much. I can't say the same for Cutler until the new running back committee proves itself, but the front seven should help the equation.
Wiederer: So yeah. A lot needs to go right for these Bears to become a surprise playoff contender. But until thing start going wrong, I'm willing to offer the benefit of the doubt as an asterisk on my 7-9 projection. Let's get the real games started and see what shakes out.
Campbell: I'm taking the opposite approach: skepticism until this last-place team proves it deserves the benefit of the doubt. But I do think it's important for us to recognize the range of possibilities and keep an open mind. As Fox says, it's not how you start, it's how you finish. In another building season like this one, let's remember that.
dwiederer@chicagotribune.com
rcampbell@chicagotribune.com
