Post by Deleted on Mar 20, 2017 22:31:33 GMT -6
Mar 18, 2017 7:42:48 GMT -6 @soulman said:
This might be a better way of looking at it or at least I agree with the approach Mullin took. I may not agree with all of his assessments and so far see it as more of a zero sum gain. I still agree with the overall assessment but I would phrase it a bit differently."More is not necessarily better and better is not necessarily good".
Bears free-agency analysis: Better does not necessarily mean good
By John Mullin March 17, 2017 2:52 PM
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This is the last in a series analyzing the Bears' decision-making during the 2017 free-agency period.
As the first and second waves of free agency recede, a handful of observations as to the effects the Bears' spate of signings will have on the bigger, 2017 picture, with the overall conclusion that the Bears are better than a year ago, although "better" does not equate to "good," which the Bears need more than a few signings to be.
It would be difficult for the Bears not to emerge from the signing period any worse off than they finished the 2016 season. And while the dozen signings did not carry the splash factor of a handful of others (cornerback Stephon Gilmore to the New England Patriots, defensive lineman Calais Campbell to the Jacksonville Jaguars, wide receiver Alshon Jeffery to the Philadelphia Eagles), at the very least the Bears upgraded themselves, if not as much as they or their fan base might've preferred.
But the reality is that at the positions of need, the Bears got incrementally better over where they were in 2016, like the additions or not.
Quarterback: Mike Glennon for Jay Cutler/Brian Hoyer? Cutler and Hoyer are career mid-level NFL quarterbacks at best. Until Glennon proves something, he's not there yet. The Bears are gambling that he has upside that none of their incumbent options had; until then... +/-? Minus
Defensive line: The Bears defense suffered when nose tackle Eddie Goldman was down with an ankle injury. Opponents averaged 3.8 yards per carry in the six games Goldman played, 4.8 in the 10 he missed, replaced by chiefly by Will Sutton. Bears signed former New Orleans Saints/Seattle Seahawks nose tackle John Jenkins on Friday. Jenkins or Sutton? +/-? Plus
Cornerback: Prince Amukamara and Marcus Cooper will not make Chicago forget Charles Tillman anytime soon. And they did not rate on a par with Gilmore, A.J. Bouye or Logan Ryan. But the Bears started Jacoby Glenn, Bryce Callahan, Cre'Von LeBlanc and Johnthan Banks at the corner opposite Tracy Porter. Callahan has upside but the signings are steps up from the 2016 collage. +/-? Plus
Safety: Quintin Demps at 32 is a de facto bridge rather than long-term solution. And with two picks in the first 36, the Bears will be in position to add a top-shelf safety via the draft. In the meantime, Demps or Harold Jones-Quartey? Or Adrian Amos? +/-? Plus
Receiver: Losing Jeffery created a void in the passing offense, taking away a wideout with 304 catches over the past five years. The Bears expect Cam Meredith and Kevin White to provide size on the outside, and went for speed in signings of Markus Wheaton and Kendall Wright, who combined for 387 catches over those same five years. +/-? Minus
Tight end: Zach Miller is the usual known unknown, coming back from IR. The Bears already re-signed Daniel Brown. Logan Paulsen among the NFL's most-penalized tight ends, with more infractions (6) than pass receptions (3), including none over the final eight games. Dion Sims graded out as a better blocker and had 26 receptions, including four games with as many or more as Paulsen had all season. +/-? Plus
The first step in evaluating is to identify players of the same position, with similar playing time/opportunity, who signed a contract around same age.
They they compare variables and statistics over the two seasons prior to their/others signing.
I only took our 4 most expensive signings for this year, result is - Pace didnt pay too much.
Glennon (compared to Foles, Smith, Osweiler, Bradford) - 15,1 mil/year
Amukamara (Maxwell, Haden, Norman, Peterson) - 10,9 mil/year
Sims (Kendricks, McDonald, Green, Allen) - 4,9 mil/year
Wheaton (Benjamin, Jones, Sanu, Matthews) - 6,4 mil/year
But in the end to me it's far less about what he paid than it is what did he buy?
Is Demps an upgrade at Safety or did we just sign another Antrel Rolle. Where does this leave Amos who was a highly touted All Rookie Team draft pick a year ago.
Can Glennon manage the offense and win more often than Cutler could have or any other career type backup?
Are Amukamara and Cooper gonna take Porters job away and what about Fuller and Hall? There's one UFA, a top draft pick, and a touted 4th rounder who played well at times but who also struggled with injuries. What about Callahan and LeBlanc both of who turned in some good games. If we drafted well and or signed good UDFAs or UFAs why this apparent wholesale move to replace. Aren't any of these guys "ascending"?
Isn't Wheaton simply a trade off for Royal or is that Wright? We lost a top five 2017 UFA and we replaced him with these two guys. I don't see the gain.
Sims may or may not be Marty Bennett without the mouth but little in his career so far pegs him as much more than an in-line TE whose caught a few passes. He's not even the equal of Zach Miller as a pass catcher let alone a Greg Olsen.
How many guys did we sign? Was it 8 or 9? Even if one or two do "ascend" I have to ask will the others actually be any better than who we have because many of the same things have been said about them? Did we upgrade or just spend some cap money because we had to in order to comply with the CBA and fans would be even more in their faces if they signed no one? Let's not forget some of these guys were not the player Pace set out to sign. They were farther down on his list kinda like the girl you do take to the prom after three others turned you down.
I've been accused of being pessimistic when in reality all I'm trying to do is be realistic. Simply turning your t-shirt, shorts, and socks inside out is not the same as a change of clothing. So I'm questioning both the moves and the motives.